I'm mostly with Giolucas on this one. Why sweat the near term?
I thnk there has been an expectation that physical supplies could get tight by the end of the season. I'm sure many big end users put in place strategies to deal with that possibility - like shutting down for mainteainence, etc. Why not?
On the other hand, if a product is profitable then processors and users won't back off unless it is near impossible to get supplies - and running in the red for awhile is an old tradition to keep workers and buyers long term. So demand could only be tempered a bit, but with current falling prices why not ramp up?
Basis has been telling a story but that doesn't mean psychology has no impact as some bet on lower prices later on. In any case physical product will be bought - and sold. Some will certainly throw in the towel.
If old crop supplies are likely to be tight then there is still some theater to watch before the story is told.
Count your cards. Then place your bets.
