cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
vrbuck
Advisor

Change the format

MAGA works here.  Make agriculture.com great again. It isn’t the content it is the format.  Do a reboot back to pre 2008 and usage and viewership would come back.

32 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Change the format

I somewhat agree VR.  Although it was the primarily the censorship that was the final blow... the format changes have not been helpful..... 

 the spell check and grammar adjusters is a waste of money also.... I find myself correcting the corrections way too much.

I remember when a few would complain about the entries being spelled or punctuated wrong.  We never hear that any more 'cause we cant tell if it was the writer or the correction program.  Maybe in appearance....... Or maybe they slowed down the useage to give the advertising time to interrupt more often.  (which I hate to mention since it has gotten better the last few months.... 

I still look here to hear what you have to say .... and everybody else I have been getting advice from like it or not.  There are a lot of folks from various regions of the midwest that have far more interesting things to say about the markets than usda and the paid pimps.  Good market material is just hard to find... not just this marketing sesspool but most all are based on speculation sensationalism with a political twist and very few facts.  It is a media issue sort of but also The board of trade went maximum all out for greed so that means that 90% of the futures trade now is speculation(not part of an actual trade or even an intent to trade)--- or comparable to the vegas line on the ncaa tournament only 60 % of the trades don't even know who the teams are.

Most of the side notes here are better than the floor talk..... Like I can tell you that most of the winter wheat crop from Amarillo to The Platte River is trash.... killed by chemical or freeze or steel with maybe 25% left to see the combine and that won't be worth much yield wise.  More acres got green chopped to silage pits in our area than I have ever seen. ...................  But lets face it.... CBOT or KCwheat isn't going to help those producers in any fashion.  CBOT and floor talk only care about contract numbers and that has nothing to do with bushels raised.... and everything to do with contracts bought for spec.   And I for one hope china virus bled the economy so hard that the funds speculators get out of the market.  

I been here to hear what you have to say...... but the wheat guys have been driven away  or  just gave up on marketing as a goal worth having.......... a couple of our eastern guys are working hard to make a living other ways because the US does not want to support a decent price for commodities to support producers.   The best sign of that is usda and their irrational hatred for a respectable loan rate for any commodity.  That tells you what usda thinks of producers.... and the commodities they raise...... Usda hates producers..... and commodities,,,,,,, but needs production.  That happened when usda became a welfare office that cared more about a producers gross income than what he planted.   

This is not a marketing forum ..... it is a speculate on usda releases and political propaganda page.  SF doesn't need our subscriptions or care what happens to producers.  Unless it is sensational.   

When you live south of the cost of production this long and the principle cost drivers pay for the advertising, should we expect SF to really care for the details of the actual crop ........ or just keep stroking the international corporations that control inputs (and usda since Crop insurance has become a major cost of production beyond affordability for some commodities, discounting that fake subsidy that usda pays to the federal crop insurance scam.)  

Im a fan of Darin Newsom because of his honesty on usda... and other things(like being willing to live in swks for a while)... but that usda sacred cow will keep him off of SF's marketing discussion...and doesn't seem to win him points with younger analysts who can't find real life outside of usda.

I like the twitter format where you just don't follow those you choose not to.  Although I still follow Mike, John Walter and Jeff Caldwell.  I respect what they have to say even if they choose to look at a different corner of the picture than I do.  They have been kind enough not to target me or anyone else that I know of.  It would be nice to be able to block contributors we choose.  And it would make the page much quicker to scan through.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Change the format

USDA is a easy whipping boy, probably because they have to sometimes be brutally honest and remind us that the cornbelt is larger than our backyards.   USDA is a arm of the generational US "cheap food policy"so they have no displeasure in reporting bearish but honest numbers.  2 billion carryover or 3 billion carryover what is really the difference?  It`s too much corn to get anyone uncomfortable, it`s not exactly like the Walmart toilet paper shelves a month ago   Smiley Happy

But yeah, a 36 row planter with 10mph capability all polished up all winter in a NAT approved shop.  And that planter April 1st is filled with $300/bag retail seed, tracked tractor  fueled up aimed at a pattern tiled field that was strip tilled last November  ....and USDA isn`t going to be calling for a 180 bushel national yield, are they nuts???   They have eyes, they report and we want to "kill the messenger".   

I would say, if we don`t like what USDA says, let`s defund them on their production reporting departments, I hate bad news as much as the next guy, so let`s not fund the bad news with tax money   Smiley Happy

0 Kudos
WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Change the format

An older format that made it easier to readily see who was responding particularly to whom was nicer.

0 Kudos
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Change the format

Not really much marketing to do. Ag is a wreck, but there will be enough government compensation to keep most whole and keep the best heeled half pouring it on.

Then you move on to what the next set of policies will look like.

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Change the format

We`re at a point where it`s little or no opportunities to sell above the insurance spring price.  If you`re a professional bear, you can make money on your puts or whatever.  Spring insurance price is usually a penury breakeven, yet most of us the higher yields bolix up any insurance claim.  That and the structure of how crop insurance is set up to favor the house, which is probably alright that way the needy get it and not so much the greedy, as it was.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Change the format

sd---- I agree agriculture is a wreck and looks like a car that has been going over the cliff for the last 4 years.  There are no marketing opportunities..... there is only "how much money do you want to loose..... this isn't enough loss then hold those bushels for another three months for a bigger loss!"  This is a monopoly buyers holiday of pulling fish from the barrell.  Those who sell equipment, those who buy grain, those who sell fertilizer ...... fuel, .......... labor.   There is no competition anywhere.  We have reached the point where going out and finding another tennent to plant a crop is becoming a rumor not a fact.

But I gotta disagree with something you said...... It's my job here at the "Marketing forum"  (whatever that means).....

The last line about usda moving on to the next policy.....??  Usda hasn't had a farm bill with "policy" since 1996.  And after that the usda budget was gutted for food stamps and whatever minority  who pretended to be a  potential farmer and needed a $50,000 handout for pretending to have been slighted by the office help.  ---- too much detail but having a policy has not existed for a long time....... Then it was "lets let the world trade organization dictate our policy"....... The $$$ from usda has been one crisis to the next --sometimes through crop insurance, then marketing assistance  ---- formerly once a year and the last few it has been two or three a year.

What kind of sad shape would we be in if congress didn't need corn for ethanol so we can pretend to care about the environment and plant concrete and steel forests across the midwest and pretend it isn't an expensive junk pile.  (Congress has bought a lot of cockamamy ideas since 96....  while the last 4 are falling on their face, along comes the "switchgrass president"..... and congress can't wait to plant another 97 million acres of borrowed money.  

So don't try to pretend there is a policy for agriculture..... foreign labor....... ??? been carrying several areas of agriculture's work for near 20 years using an old field hand law passed for california's ag industry to supply hand labor californians will not do.  So now that law supplies truck drivers and heavy equipment operators for farms all over the midwest.  If there are more that 3 machines working in a farm field most of those drivers had a 20 hour commute by commercial jet.   Like everything else in congress it is a sudo patch for a problem with no planning or wisdom.... labor department ramrods it and doesn't want to.  the IRs makes rules over it and disagrees with its own rules.  Labor and IRS and usda, and homeland security..... all make rulings over it... often conflicting rules which don't get resolved because they don't communicate with each other...... Immigration gets involved at making rules no one asked for.  It is a mess because it is not a planned policy,,,,,,, just a patch for a problem that congress hasn't got time to deal with because there isn't enough numbers or $$$$ to pay for the lipstick.  I can't think of much of anything in agriculture with congressional fingerprints on it that is not a mess.  

This latest one ......... whatever you sold in January because you delayed the income will get a subsidy.... but if you had to pay bills before the first of the year you were not hurt and don't get a subsidy..... Thank you but  that is not a policy.  That is a typical washington dC attempt to do very little and look like you did a lot, while spending far more on special interest handouts to hold your voting base and fund the foundation.  I haven't read it yet...... but here is something more fun..... List the years of elections.... and then fill in the emergency or tragedy that needed elected officials to come through financially during that year..... match  the election to the crisis....  

BA   Usda needs to do some real work and stop drinking coffee around the computer modeling process that fills out their reports....  Real work like solving or destroying the problems we have.... 80% or more of the worlds population is fed by a poverty labor force.  India and its cast system, Brazil and its noneuropean indigenous, Rich China and its cheap labor struggling poor,  Mexico and its working poor fit right in here, Africa and its noneuropean tribes of cheap labor..... Southeast Asia, Eastern europe which is still enslaved by soviet style governments of corruption that only a US vice president would get involved in.   Where I know a good jd sprayer operator who comes here every year for the summer because all he can make in agriculture in the Ukraine is $350 a month.   I know you don't think I should blame usda and I don't.

I am just disappointed in usda's smug arrogance and expect them to take on issues and develop ideas that improve agriculture in the US/    We have real problems to solve and most of our bureaucracy is coming off a sizeable paid vacation.  I expect them to correct these issues.

0 Kudos
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

You want to talk about grain marketing (or livestock) OK, talk about it.

The simple fact is, the prices of grain (& livestock) are being controlled by Macro-factors at present, example, the corn-ethanol market is dominated by the Pandemic's effect on gasoline consumption.  (Not that long ago, it was the politics of refinery exemptions.)  That's just the world we live in.

  Meanwhile, like it or not, the price of soybeans is being controlled by the politics of the US-China relationship. That's just the reality of it. The simple fact is, trump's Chinese trade war gambit is rooted almost entirely in domestic presidential politics, not actual economics, it just is.  Case in point, Obama's approach to the rise of China was to build increased trade & defense relationships with Asian countries in particular but other countries in general in order to provide an alternative to China.  Trump's approach is unilateral direct confrontation. History will record which was/ will be more successful.  But whether you agree with the politics or not, the fact is, over the past three years, China has signed trade agreements with over 70 nations, the US, two, if you count China.  Those Chinese trade agreements will get in the way of any future trade agreement we might want to make.  I would imagine that China is feeling pretty comfortable with its position right now, three years ago it was behind, today it has clearly jumped ahead, both in trade and in influence.  Case in point, it has funded the WHO, promised the rest of the world access to a vaccine, and even has in a vaccine in large scale testing, all the while the trump administration tried to buy exclusive access to a German vaccine.

   So, you tell me, if you're going out of your way to alienate all trading partners how's that going to work out.

   And meanwhile, the Pandemic grinds on, infections and death rates escalate in states all the way from Minnesota to Texas, what effect will that have on gasoline consumption (ethanol) in the months to come?

   

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

Rick its BS.

It is an excuse for what we have done to our domestic markets..... We sold them down the river......  we want that cheap labor force and commodities given to us.   We want the US agriculture economy to collapse.  We don't see any risk in loosing that segment of the productive population.

This story didn't start or will it end with trump.  We bargained ourselves into a loosing position on trade intentionally by folks who were globalists in loyalty, and american by protest.  Folks who naively thought depending on the third world for production was a jesture of kindness.  That is where you go when political science is the only science you study.  Global policy by folks who thing genetic modification is a recent phenomenon.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

Ag trade with China came at much too high of cost to the US general economy, it`s like slaughtering a beautiful elephant only for the sake of poaching the animal`s ivory tusks. 

US agriculture/farming a wreck?  Is that news or is that history?  I`ve been watching a wreck for 30 years now, some would argue it`s been a wreck since the early 1980`s and the "war on inflation" and the 22% interest rates at the time. "Bad farmers" were purged out, those with high tolerance to risk had debts written off, the green flag was out and everyone put the hammer down, farming was voted to be a "business" not a "way of life" and after 30 years, "this" is what you get.   First they came for the chicken guys and I said nothing, then they came for the hog guys and I said nothing (not true I`ve been vocal in my opposition)  and now they`re coming for the corn jockeys and there`s no one left to say anything for me. 

Yes I want $7 corn and $15 beans, however seed, fertilizer, machinery and rent go up and more that take the benefit.  After the Begonias are plowed up and planted to $7 corn, then the hangover sets in, 3 billion bushel carryover, machinery that was bought with $7 corn has payments and needs repair and you have to do that with $3 corn.

Agriculture isn`t a wreck for everyone, there are plenty who wouldn`t have to think twice about buying a neighboring farm for $10,000/acre "they ain`t makin` any more of it!".