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unlgrad
Senior Contributor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

WH group bought Smithfield on May 29, 2013 for $4.72 billion dollars, there is no anti-trust division in the government.  If they did their jobs, this merger would not have happened or the JBS acquiring  Swift  & Co in 2009.   It seems to be called progress, you have to consolidate to have more control.  

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

totally agree........ federal employees and congress has steadily failed to enforce our laws in favor of building international corporations for the world economy.  Undermining their own country's economy to favor china's international trade.  Which by the way means Brazil, the worlds largest exporter of beef, is allowed to buy beef packing facilities in the US.  US being the worlds largest producer of Beef.

It has been all about globalization for 30 years now in our congress.   To our demise--

(Don't leave out they allowed JBS to buy a large share of National Beefs production this last year.)  

As long as politicians get paid off congress will allow anything.

timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

I just happen to agree with VR on the format issue :-)

Just to add some indigestion to you all:

1. Ag is hardly broken, and is hardly in collapse. Positive ROI   (on invested capital) is actually pretty widespread. Plus with the very generous policy, yes policy, support programs   (read subsidized insurance, CRP, EQUIP, etal) the industry remains incredibly stable. This is basically 1985 or 1986 in the cycle, seen any foreclosure auctions? nope.

2. The 3Bil carryout projection is just that, a projection. Corn basis is already rocking higher out here in the east as all the e-plants are reopening. Gas price locally is back to about where it was in February. Some could argue that it is because of the tremendous BI-Partisan response. 

Well enough fun, back to work on some marketing concepts. But, VR is correct, the format really does suck. 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

When there`s 1 million producers they are "price takers", the more that number comes down, they will be "price makers" read that as higher food prices.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

Time your up sort of late.... or is that early

In my thinking your comments provide the "basis" of proof against your comments.   Is an industry "incredibly stable" if it takes that much federal assistance to hold the wheels on?   No matter how you look at it federal spending is not "earned" income to the industry.......

It is more like being on the ventilator and you hear your doctor say "He's breathing so well".    Smiley Happy

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

Guess won't need $40-50B in help then?

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

BTW, I agree about the anti-trust matters in this area and many others. Although felt like the Maytag repairman until people needed to shift blame onto something else.

And as far as positive ROI in agriculture- half of NFI came from the government last year and it will likely be more this year.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

My point also...... there is no federal farm program..... No plan....... no future goals.......... only emergency cash..... which just breeds the need for emergencies.  And look at those cash flows......... not a shortage of emergencies in the forseeable future.  And an environmental hoax factory somewhere is hiring every day since this election year is nearly over.

Profitability was doomed by regulation and the congressional desire for ever bigger international lobby payoffs.  30 years of liberal regulation to protect this "fragile" environment drove us into this monopoly at every turn, lack of competition.

Creating inflexible expenses and a headwind of federal taxation to stop the deamon "profit".   For the next 50 years or more..... depending on when congress stops raping the taxpayer with deficit spending..... 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

BA you touched on an issue........... Millions of producers....... we know better than that..... you and I. 

Our local leader at fsa has been on a research project and I have been following the idea.  She has been searching for those imbedded rich folks that might be part of a trust, LLC, Heirs, etc....... those rich are sneaky...

Well in the process I have gained a much clearer view of who actually farms and who is just a number generated by usda to give the appearance that agriculture is a group worth the bureaucracy that lives off them.  Ks is a different place and since there are a few minerals here and there and a heavy number of "land" managers out there looking for a cut, we probably suffer from this phenomena more than Iowa where getting cut out of the will is an art form.  

We are also unique for the way that folks in washington packed immigrants into the dust bowl like sardines in an ever shrinking container.  Well, lack of federal planning has never been blamed for the diseaster that was brought on the region in the years following.  Generations of decendents of immigrants have left this area rapidly and steadily to escape the fate of their siblings .... a life of fighting or a death from dust pneumonia.  Nearly every county in this 5 state region that was the heart of the dirty thirties lives with the fact that their county population peaked in the early to mid 1920's  and stayed below those numbers ever since ---- yet the economic activity has grown steadily in most.  Until the last 5 years.

I wish i could quote the actual numbers of "producers" usda claims to be raising commodities and compare it with the number that actually plant a seed or harvest a crop.  I know of one small acreage of wheat that will have a crop share listed as split between 16+ land owners who were part of a legal entity that was approved by another usda employee 40 years ago to streamline the process.  A legal entity with members that is ok with IRS, but not at usda now that fsa can google search courthouse records.  Crazy part is that data was already present in fsa records, but that was too hard to find.  In this county nonproducing producers out number producing producers by more than 10-1.   Time marches on, but federal employee training never stops..  I wonder if that ratio holds true on marketing.... between those who talk marketing and those who acturally sell a crop.???  

-----

this current federal financial assistance is a point of interest.  with most absentee land owners selling right off the combine and their operators with storage and relationships with end users most of the upcoming payment will go to the fools who kept their grain too long, and at least one of those 16+ owners is going to think they got cheated.  "Life is like a box of chocolates"

 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Lack of Marketing, OK, give us an example, why not?

The thing is when farming is "good" $7 corn, hog barns going up, ethanol plants rolling smoke, to sell a farm bill is about like auctioning off a year old Christmas fruit cake.   "We don`t need it, I`m too busy countin` mah money!  Git the government outta farmin`"

 

But the government  comes out with a farm bill anyway that sends farmers a 50¢ a bushel check when cash corn is $7.  In their defense they say "that subsidy will decline every year and down to zero in year 5"  Well by year 5 the subsidy is zero and $7 corn is long gone and $3 corn is the norm with no subsidy, so out comes the Bandaids.  I guess we`re lucky the public goes along with this schizophrenia so that we do get a Bandaid.  

When EWG web site first came out the Wife had internet at work, so I said "look up ol` ***** and see how much he`s gettin`"  She said "You`re getting more than he is!"  Whaaaat no way! I drove right up to see for myself (I didn`t really, but it sounds good  Smiley Happy  )  But when I did see the EWG deal, he`s getting money, his wife and both parents plus the 3 dummy corporations he set up and at the government trough.  I haven`t looked in years at EWG but 25yrs ago his payments bought farms while some of us bought groceries with ours, cash corn was $1.37 and prime land was <$2,000, no wonder the rich got richer.  In the late 90s, farm subsidy size mattered. 

But we really are at a fork in the road this time, not that "wolf!" was ever cried.  But cost of technology has raised the ante and if a farm bill doesn`t support the mid-sized farms, they really will go away and never be able to return.  Maybe that`s what we want?  If that`s the case then let`s pull the plug and be done with it.

I recall when corn was $7 a guy we were talking on here about the high cost of inputs and what will happen on the "long shot" that $7 corn goes away.  One guy said "if corn price drops in half, we won`t be paying these high prices for inputs" and we all nodded in agreement.  Well, that didn`t happen exactly, inputs only dropped to reflect $5 corn, not $3 corn.   And I think that`s our problem more than the actual "$3 corn".