Chart - mkt updates

[Palouser]

China is importing more beans, 10 MMT more last I heard, but credit policy changes and a Japanese trading company's shipping w/o waiting for the letters of credit put them behind the 8 ball.

[c-x-1]

on Paragon's 200 yr chart - think 2008 DOES qualify as a "sharp decline w/in a decade" -- flat price's decline was much deeper (CRB/CCI - clearly shows) than "rate of return" b/c of the different and more varied economic allowances -- so the charts decline doesn't appear so sharp.

Palouser & Cat - I realize prod selling and paper selling are not 1 and the same, with the former being an important (yet albeit - part) of many which comprise your business, BUT.......

Even taking the political uncertainty/unrest (w/ Pukin) - prod concerns out of equation -if SWW chart is just starting big #3??

NO judging here, but what are the business reasons to even begin selling a physical inventory at this juncture - if you care to say.

P - do u do any charting? --- i know Cat does.

thanks,

c-x-1

[c-x-1]

one more thing for bean producers and ECIN -

IF my 90%+ confidence plays out -- this would place X crop 1400-1430 area........could be a good area to lock in some, i repeat-some.

charts are indicating WILD swings - after that.

[Shaggy98]

Back onto the wheat market, what are the odds that the traders are watching the radar map today lite up like a Christmas tree and say all is saved in the wheat belt and the markets trade in the red?

[Palouser]

I sell on flat price because that's how our market out here operates. Price moves do not necessarily follow Chicago and virtually every terminal uses Portland price minus published transport and handling costs to the coast which usually are set yearly except fuel surcharges that have been more common. Everything is based on SWW exports and domestic prices are the slave to that. I COULD still use SRW futures for big moves but don't and I could careless about daily actions. My only consideration for short term is when I decide to sell and narrow to a time window of two weeks down to several days - and I'll change my mind if there's movement I don't like.

I use long term trends based on physical wheat supply/demand/production conditions. A complete market opportunist based on trends. Charts and commercials just don't scare me - or cancelations and the like. Every country is going to consume about what they consumed last year and maybe more. 'More' seems to be the global trend this year based on exports and this is most interesting this time around.

When I say i am interested in selling at over $8 I'm also thiniking  - 'depending on the strength of the moves in the up direction'. If I still see strong moves I may watch longer. I don't mind selling on the back side of a rally I didn't fully anticipate at this time.  I have two years of wheat on hand. For certain I'll have some wheat to sell this summer because I anticipate some real competition for the rest of SWW. Our harvest at the lower elevations doesn't really crank up til mid July and there is freeze damage there this year. I don't harvest til August. There's going to be buyers wanting shipments for supply insurance. And the exporters will definitely try some head fakes before that. The "Lemon-lime cottage surprise' variety. 😉

[c-x-1]

thanks Pal,

2 years - wow - how many ac do you farm - bu on hand?

...or pm if able

[Palouser]

I'm a fairly small operator by any standards. 😉 Been happy to stay that way. One 2388 hillside and a CIH 9180, both in good shape.

[roarintiger1]

How does tonight's markets look?  Any guesses?  I forget.  Is rain a good thing or a bad thing for the markets? 

[425Cat]

Im desperately trying to believe you on the beans cx and hoping youre right however fundamentally I cant wrap my head around those prices. I think there are some underlying dangers in china. Of course weather can change everything.

Anything above 15 % ROI ya gotta price some

[Palouser]

I haven't heard if substantial rain fell today in the southern Plains but warm weather is coming. I would guess further rains on SRW wouldn't be helpful in some areas.

But who can outguess the night markets on Sunday? For that matter is seems like Mondays often have negative moods w/o significant new info. However, for corn country it sounds like additional delays? The importance of that would need a crystal ball to determine!