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Veteran Advisor

China Begins to Close Ports

No ships allowed to enter

11:10 am Jan 26 [China time]

"Shantou, S. China's Guangdong Province, will be the next Chinese city to enter lockdown. From January 27, no vehicles, ships or personnel will be allowed to enter the city, except those with emergency and special missions."

https://www.globaltimes.cn//content/1177737.shtml

Official tally:

8:45 am Jan 26

Wuhan Coronavirus update as of 24:00 Jan 25: 
New cases: 688 
New deaths: 15 (13 from Hubei, 1 from Shanghai, 1 from Henan) 
Total cases: 1975 
Total deaths: 56

Coronavirus cases outside of China: 
Thailand: 4 
Japan: 2 
South Korea: 2 
US: 2 
Vietnam: 2 
Singapore:3 
Malaysia:3 
Nepal:1 
France: 3 
Australia:

**Chinese doctor now claiming that AIDS antivirals work against the coronavirus pneumonia.

...so what remains to be seen is if this will be an epidemic vs pandemic, and a market disruption vs a market disaster.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: If road & rail transportation is shut down,.....

If road & rail transportation is shut down, they won't be able to move grain anyhow.  The grain will just back up in the ports and can't be unloaded.  Even if it's only a few weeks or a couple of months it will cut the consumption of grain simply because the interior will be forced to do without.

  And worse, if the Chinese economy slows appreciably they won't have the money to buy as much food as well.

  As far as that $200 billion in additional purchases mandated under Phase One is concerned, it would seem to me that the Chinese could declare "Force Majeure" or "casus fortuitus" and get out of it completely now.

  Phase One text includes this article under dispute resolution:

  Article 7.6: Miscellaneous

1. The Parties affirm their existing rights and obligations with respect to each other under the WTO Agreement and other agreements to which the Parties are party.

2. In the event that a natural disaster or other unforeseeable event outside the control of the Parties delays a Party from timely complying with its obligations under this Agreement, the Parties shall consult with each other. 

  I think what epidemic means is: don't plan on sell beans to the Chinese this year, maybe not even next.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: China Begins to Close Ports

Thanks for the post on this freedom 1493.

Hopefully the spread of the flu ends. 

Sounds like a Doctor in China has it figured that the AID S anti viral drugs work on this flu.  ( interesting.... MO)

Veteran Advisor

Re: If road & rail transportation is shut down,.....

With a bunch of everything shut down... It's likely the geronimo down now excuse for the big stock market correction.. 

Stocks been Way overheated... The Dow should go out of 2020 at bout 17000.

Veteran Advisor

Re: "Big stock market correction" and that 95+ million acres of corn more likely.

Well, so much for a soybean rally this year.

How is China going to buy pork and beef if they're on lockdown?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: "Big stock market correction" and that 95+ million acres of corn more likely.


@rickgthf wrote:

Well, so much for a soybean rally this year.

How is China going to buy pork and beef if they're on lockdown?


 I imagine they may buyMore foodstuffs than before: 

My reasons Are incoming foreign product is Clean... Foodstuffs produced in China may be flu contaminated. 

Guess we'll see.  This deal may be a huge boom for USA Agri. 

 

Advisor

Really Black Swan

looks like that "black swan" I wrote about a couple of weeks ago is a dead swan. If the markets stay down like this, the bailout money isn't even going to help very much.

Veteran Advisor

USA

Now has its 3rd case of Wuhan flu. 

Southern California. 

The press spins the flu risk down  , not mentioning that a case of positive diagnosis,  In Fact also was possibly spreading the flu for 2 weeks to a month previous. 

Veteran Advisor

Re: USA

Update: 

**China's manufacturing hub of Suzhou to shut down until at least February 8.  It is a major manufacturing hub and also has a port.

**Wuhan has a population of around 14 million.  Only 9 million are said to be currently in the city, leaving 5 million out and about in the world.  Some had already left to go home for the Lunar New Year and some fled the quarantine before Wuhan was locked down.

**4th case just said to be confirmed in California

**Must also wear protective eye-wear because of the eyes' pathway to the nose thru tear ducts. 

**NHS England said to warn doctors and nurses corpses still dangerous because air can be still in lungs.

**WHO has a "proper way to wear a mask" video.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USA

Update:  5th US Coronavirus infection said to be confirmed

Just watched an Amazon face mask seller go from "17 boxes in stock" to "3 boxes in stock" to "no seller has this item" in less than 20 seconds

....never a dull moment in 2020

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