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Senior Advisor

Re: You can stop that talk right now........

"China buys from Brazil, other customers have to buy from the US".  You can just stop that talk right now. 

  For three years, people have been saying that "if China buys all their beans from Brazil, their other customers will have to buy from us."  A simple analysis three years ago indicated that it wasn't the case and that 913 million bushel carryout last year proved it conclusively.  The reason is simple, sure the Chinese paid more for beans the first year but that's only because they got caught short but not anymore.

Number one, Brazil dramatically expanded production and they've had good crops. There has been plenty of beans for all their customers. Remember all the fires in the Amazon last year? That's all soybean ground now, satellite images prove it.

  Number two,  since the first summer, whenever the Brazilians have tried to raise the price, the Chinese buy just  enough beans from the US to send a message, "Brazilians, don't try it".

   Number three, China isn't the only country Trump has picked trade fights with.  Several nations have quietly stopped buying US soybeans in order to send a message to the trump administration.  However, so far at least, trump hasn't gotten the message.

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Honored Advisor

Re: You can stop that talk right now........

the results of this discussion from 2018 are in and exports to other destinations did increase.... 

our china hugging people can talk all they want, but if you were going to look for a trade partner, China would be the last choice.  Our trade deficit with them is more than enough proof of that.

Being totally unreliable 

The News every day explains why China is not the place to be reliant on for trade.

Honored Advisor

Re: You can stop that talk right now........

Well said SW,

but it does not fit the "rick and dave" ideology! They will probably take exception, and prove to you that it is all Trump's fault.   :-O

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