China Tariffs

[deasmatt90]

market makers can and do manipulate markets, but in the end they can't hide fundamentals! That's why during the beginning of low supply eras it's always a shock to the system. It's like everyone wakes up one day and all of a sudden we have no supply!
Anyone looked at commitment of traders yesterday?

[BA Deere]

John Roach on last week`s M to M market plus was echoing that we draw down supplies and better prices around the corner, with the caveat of tariffs.

http://www.iptv.org/mtom/story/30798/market-plus-john-roach-june-8-2018

[deasmatt90]

Ba Deere good clip. That guy seems to be spot on!

[sw363535]

The winning in the tade game comes when walmart looks to discover new suppliers.  And they will if the tariff makes china production too expensive.  That is not a loss to the US economy.  That is opening up opportunity.

I would like to see tariff's on non US education within the US education system.  Exporting PHD's and limiting opportunity for US students for nonprofit profit is one of those ugly "one world socialist" realities that never gets addressed.  And most farmers are competing with those endowment organizations for bushel share in the market and acres.

[deasmatt90]

I believe china will get on board, they're crazy not to. They will lose a lot more in a trade war than we will as a whole and our president knows this. However they will have to do it in a way that doesn't make the leaders look weak politically. Maybe a bit bumpy for awhile but if it stays a trade war only, we will come out of the other side better than before. My only concern is history repeating itself as with Japan in WW2, trade is what set it in motion. China has a lot of people to throw away to war, and I think if it came to that it would be fought right here on domestic soil. I very seriously doubt it would ever go that far, but no one knows what the future actually holds. This outcome would be a black swan event I believe.

[Hobbyfarmer]

https://community.agriculture.com/t5/Crop-Talk/Drought-isn-t-quite-over-yet/m-p/674708#M7387

BADEERE: see the picture? Yep Wilde pliers, straight out of my pliers pocket, same pair still there.

My slip joint ones are that German brand that can't pinch fingers and give those wonderful blood blisters.

[k-289]

SW  -  spot  on , likewise  asking  about  the  price  of  ''' seed  embryo's ''''  in  South  America  vs   U. S.  ?  ?  ?

Now  the  Red,   White,  &  Blue  being  replaced  with   the   Black ,  Red ,  &  Gold  emblem ,   more  sweet  deal'N  - - -  

[Hobbyfarmer]

Some on here think the liberals of yesterday were wonderful..

This article is about those times and the limp wristed lip service only solution.

We're we patriots then or just pathetic?

http://www.farmfutures.com/story-china-playing-rules-18-148949

[hardnox]

its a little late- the trade threats are probably mostly already priced in.

That didn't cause most of the decline but certainly contributed. 

We're left in a situation where all but the most modest sell orders put out for spring were left unfilled and if something positive doesn't happen, many will have missed the boat. If crop/acres turn out really bearish (the extreme case) then there's going to be some hardship where the super yields don't come in.

Looking forward the question becomes whether trade tensions and other factors will cause some larger and longer term economic problems. The MAGAs will tell you that the probability of that is 0. It probably isn't the most likely scenario but it is a fair bit more than 0.

[timetippingpt]

"all but the most modest sell orders"?????

The $10.60 sx resistance, it has been an important price point since 1973 for goodness sake, was tested 5 times, during 5 different weeks. Huge spec longs, declining momentum, perfect timing symetry, perfect seasonal high timing. What else could you ask for? This was incredibly easy to see coming and lots of people have 100% of their new beans hedged.

Corn probably less so, but corn is not the target of the tariffs.