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Palouser
Senior Advisor

China ag subsidies now $75 billion

They only started in 2004. There are direct payments and input help. Rice and others get up to $100 an acre.

 

They are our biggest ag import customer. And the world's largest food producer by far.

 

Good story here http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2013-october/us-exports-surge-as-china-supports-agricultural-pri...

 

 

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pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: China ag subsidies now $75 billion

Looks like China's subsidies are 33 B$ for 2013. Vs our 15 - 30 auunal subs.

 

China wheat net imports for 13'14 projected at 8.5 vs 2 in 12/13 and 2 in 12/13- world prod 709.

Corn projected at 7 mmt vs 3 in 12/13, 5 in 111/12. World prod is 957 if i remember right.

Beans projected at 12.2, down a bit from 12/13 at 12.8 . 281 world crop.

 

PRICE is the dominant fundamental, PRICE advertises plant more or less and the production community reponds. 

As has been the case for 100s of years. By definition, commodity prices trenbd towards the  cost of production.

Technology advances. The "real" price of commodities go down over time. (real, inflation adjusted)

 

No fun, unpopular ,but someone has  to say it !

 

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RE SRW USDA has a small drop projected in domestice use- Ithink way off as we will use WAY less for feed.

And exports way up, why? we know 12/13 was resrticted because of higher domestice feed use but beyond that/

 

A 545 million crop and more realistic export and feed use # I think points ES of 211+ not 111.

Other views?

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