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Senior Advisor

China importing wheat due to rain issues

China lost about 10 MMT of quality wheat due to rains during harvest. Poor quality was a concern last year also.

 

China is steadily importing wheat to make up the deficit of milling wheat in their reserves. US and French wheat are filling in so far.

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Senior Contributor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

Nothing personal but that sounds exaggerated.  WORLD production is looking 695.9  MMT.

10 or 30 this way or that ignores expanding ES / USE generally in wheat.

Ag econ 001, high prices invite greater supply.

 

Back to back yrs of weather troubles are the rarity, the mkt heds towards the COP.

 

WN3  cbt is at a three year low,   three year low. Posting supposdely bullish ideas weekly is jsut that.

Reality is lots of wheat and lower prices.

 

Hedged crops are doing well and vast premia from excess proces haas been collected by futures shorts.

Spec and hedges.

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Honored Advisor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

Your two posts on the world wheat supply should have our wheat up the limit........What are they waiting for?

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Senior Advisor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

The wheat world has been watching Argentina's situation for some time. It's not a new situation. But the export ban is the latest development. One of the reasons our weekly sales is up is because Brazil, one of the world's largest importers of wheat, is importing from the US - its usual alternate supplier when neighbor Argentina has production problems.

 

The China situation is the first time I've seen numbers attatched. China has been buying wheat from around the world lately. Their basic need is to have enough quality wheat in reserves to tamp down domestic milling wheat price rises with auctions from its reserves during the year.

 

IMO the most interesting situation will be Egypt (the world's largest wheat importer?) as its foreign currency reserves shrink due to internal political chaos and economic impacts of tourism drying up and other disruptions. Egypt depends on subsidized bread to keep the large population deep in poverty off the streets - especially during an economic crisis. They have put off wheat purchases and time will tell if they can manage the situation.

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

I will say that I think corn has become the 'darling' of the grain world due to ethanol and it's impact on animal feed situations - especially with drought in the Plains. It's made corn - and to some degree beans - a more dynamic global market.

 

This site is more oriented to corn and beans, and much less so wheat. Wheat is more global and so much of the news is international, whereas much of the most important developments in corn and beans takes place in the American market.

 

My sources of information have much more of a basis in international developments regarding wheat.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

Palouser, thanks for helping keep us aware of the role of the wheat market. Wheat always appears fickle as the rules of the game apparently a little different than corn & beans.

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Senior Contributor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

Then the Amateur In Chief is messing up trade:

 

 

http://hotair.com/archives/2013/06/27/ecuador-to-us-take-your-trade-and-shove-it/

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

A review of forum shows when Egypt buys, producers want to help, by selling. econ good.

Egypt imports wheat every year, annually, if they didn’t, wheat would be 1$ lower.

 

Egypt is sitting waiting ?  Don’t find that to be true.

 

Brazil is so desperate, they are importing US wheat? With prices at 3 yr lows,

We must have too much.

 

Argentina NOT selling isn’t bullish, am sure you know. It is bearish, country is in a shambles, many may want to own wheat vs the currency, holding back =s more to come to market later. An end-user might wait until they change their mind and sell, then get coverage. .

 

Project the wheat by class, SRW report of 12 days away.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

Palouser ,

 

for the last seven days wheat has been dropping.  I do not know if this report will stop the bleeding or help it go off the cliff?

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Advisor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

Palouser, Canadian production seems to be filling the gap left by us production.

Currency is good too.... Can't get corn out of here fast enough...

Some states have some wheat as well. The spread bw adm and the elevator is $70 here. Like holy **bleep**. Good hrw is 280/t to the end user
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