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Senior Advisor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

I'm not sure 'a' report will be conclusive for the medium to long term. China's buying has been 'in the market' for some time.

 

It's the trends and the continual addition or subtraction that will tell the story.  A report is more like a snap shot in time that shows the best guesses. Until we see conditions at pollination and filling for corn a lot of the story is unknown.

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Senior Contributor

Re: China importing wheat due to rain issues

UK still an net importer rather than an net expoeter!

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Senior Contributor

Re: China + a big countrry

Am sure my posts are tiring, but FWIW, wheat is global, more global than any other grain/oilseed. Production and universal use. 

Consequence: suppressed volatility, the perfect storm where several areas have troubles simultaneously is very rare, though we had 2 of the last 5 yrs in that category? Palouser notes and reports on those times.

 

It would be nice if otherwise but I think the era of 8+ wheat is likely over.  We had crazed Index funds taking length (bearish factor in time), we had super tight ES/use in corn and record SRW feeding and what else. Sure crop reducing themes will pop-up, we are never far away from one, but mkt impact? Limited.  

 

ES in SRW could hit 250 in 13/14, others with math to share? 

 

Cheers anyway. Pritch

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: China + a big countrry

Why when Argintina's internal price is up to almost twice the price in other parts of the world would they have to "ban" it's sale?

 

We hear all the time that when we are just a few % points higher on a grain we are uncompetitive and none can be sold on the world market but They can be 50 to 75% higher and still have to "ban" it's international sales.

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