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Veteran Advisor

China or Weather?

Perhaps the market factor that has longer legs and more of a present impact is the U.S. planting weather and not the Chinese tariffs?

 

Planting weather does not look favorable for the next two weeks, according to this new look at the weather.

 

Full story:   April weather will continue to slow down corn planting

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

 

 

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6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: China or Weather?

About 3 weeks away from "normal" corn planting dates in SCMN, give or take a few days.

Ground is covered with several inches of snow and still has significant frost in places.

Longer range forecast calls for temps in the 50's later next week.

Take a while to bring soil temps up given that forecast.

Rain = who knows?  They can't forecast snow totals 24 hours out.

They were only about 60 miles off for the last storm and 100 miles off for the prior one.

Given the size of these storms should we cut them some slack?

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: China or Weather?

How many beans did the Chinese buy when the market was down 50 cents?  And the tariff is not even on yet.

 

So far, not a one of us has lost a penny on this tariff talk. 

 

Brazil weather for corn is reported to be good which may pressure corn prices.  So, we switch from corn to beans?  And the weather is feared to be bad, maybe we should switch more corn to beans.  Wait a minute, we're already growing more beans than corn.  Ouch, I think I have a headache.

 

 

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Advisor

my memory

is that when there's snow in the fence rows (or where they used to be) in April they have tended to be good growing seasons.

 

Looks like planting is proceeding in the south, where it needs to be.

 

'82 was one of the great growing seasons that I recall. There was snow in the fencerows on April 15th, we were planting in good conditions at the end of the month and done quickly.

 

We're sort of "due" one of those boomer years- really haven't had one since '04. I'd list '82, '94 and '04 in that category.

They did all fall in the middle of the sunspot cycle, which is where we currently are.

 

Speaking of sunspots- things are really dead. Some speculation that we're heading into a low activity period that could last several decades. 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: China or Weather?

Jim...I would suggest that you pull your "grain only" perspective out of ....

 

The hog industry is getting crucified by the tariff babble. Down from $78 to $52 in 6 weeks is a REAL impact my friend.  Admittedly, they should have been down anyway going into April, so I have no idea how much the tariff has extended the flush, but it certainly is not helpful...  :-)

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Honored Advisor

Re: China or Weather?

cattle are dealing with that somewhat as well

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Senior Contributor

Re: China or Weather?

I thought I understood that China takes about 1% of our beef exports, also under the impression that the Chinese were becoming more efficient with their hog production and was decreasing imports of pork over the last few months. The tariffs might be speeding up the decline, if they were actually in place. This going to be one of those sell the rumor and buy the fact when it actually happens, the tariff that is.

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