I think,
My local area and national average ----- Locally, corn & Beans are irrigated. We averaged 218 last year and the overall area might have been better --- although it is a function of water supply. We don't miss that average by 20 bushel per year, year in and year out. Good land, good water averages well above that. Most of the acres within 100 miles will fall well below averages. Been delivering corn 100 miles and looking over the tops of circles --most are wavy and inconsistant. dry and wet at the same time. Stalke on higher ground deteriating with green in low areas.. We have harvested 900 acres so far at 175 avg. The area is just getting started on dry corn.
Nationally we are making the normal young farmer mistake ---- we park and stare at our best fields. When we know half our corn is raised in the marginal ground, way out there, with below 25 inches of rainfall. In that half of the crop we are fighting a few problems. Water for crops continues to diminish--by drought, by depletion or by regulation, less gallons mean less bushels. Nebraska, colorado, Ks, california, Texas, Okla, etc.
You and I have different perspectives, when you see a good crop you have to wonder if your half of the crop is normal or a bettier than normal, but you don't know if the national crop is big.
I look around and see the other half ---- the marginal half. And when I can drive from Salina Ks, or Wichita Ks west 400 miles and see field after field of 80 to 120 bushel dry land corn and milo, I am pretty sure we have a big crop coming cause I can count on your half. Kansas still has too much drought ------ If you take highway 4 west in the Smokey Hill River drainage it looks good for 200 miles but the rest of us are driving up there to see it ---- It is about 40 miles wide. Pre drought we contributed that way one year out of three and half that most years. We have improved but have lost groundwater at a faster rate and out west there a few areas of improvement--------east --- short beans and dried up corn This week eastern Ks didn't look very good in the northeast.
I am sure that picture is similar driving west whether you start in ks, oklahoma city, or Fargo, or Souix city, or marshall, Minn. There is a lot of acres west of there thatiare needed to contribute to a "record" crop.
It is clear that the end users have won the "message" battle and intend to take no prisoners. Now we will see if we can pile corn so deep it touches the missouri and the mississippi on both sides of Iowa. If it doesn't this will be a dissapointing year.
Another thing we see hurting the market -------- not enough cattle.......... We would have a lot of acres going into bunkers at these prices if we had the cattle to feed...........
Sorry it was so long Jim.
