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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Chinese credit taper or rain?

Seems China is trying to cool the heels of rising commodity prices .


“Ultimately, the easing credit impulse in China should take some wind out of the sails for commodity demand,” said TD Commodities.

One theory behind the Bill & Melina Gates divorce is it is an excuse to cash in their poker chips without raising red flags...interesting.

If corn & beans are down, as the Milli Vanilli school of marketing says "Blame it on the rain".   ♪what ever you do, don`t ♫ put the blame on you ♪ blame it on the rain    ...gotta blame it on somethin` ♪    Smiley Happy

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4 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Chinese credit taper or rain?

However it shakes out you’ll manage to wrap it in a neat narrative that works for you.

Curious that nobody has mentioned the Fed drawing $350B in liquidity.

Meanwhile “central banks” put out some soft talk, bitcoin is back over 40 and all is well.

That’s what I generally expect for a while- soft talk and relatively harder action as they try to rein in excess liquidity a bit.

What they should do given the hand they’ve been dealt- and dealt themselves.

But anyway, some rain. And the unchanging fact that when a crop is 90%+ planted on 5/24 and there are no major regions of concern it tends to get lonely for bulls.

There will be a crop scare, or more, sometime. The question as always is when and from where.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Chinese credit taper or rain?

When China tries to control the CBOT and the USDA we are in trouble.............wait.........what?

Honored Advisor

Re: Chinese credit taper or rain?

Well these issues got answers pretty quickly.

Brazil on drought alert, faces worst dry spell in 91 years.   4 days later

Corn Belt crops get drink now, face hot/dry July and August, forecaster says.    3 days later

With strong beef demand, cattle are going to market quicker, analyst says.      After record placements all spring, demand says "it isn't enough"....... like trying to get components from China.  Record demand is bigger than record placements.

Fairness in cattle markets will be a top priority, says Hipp.        What would cattle prices be if they were not manipulated?   ---- And lets face it the American consumer is not a factor in the equation, we will pay all the $$$ we can print for good steaks.  Cost of living be dammed says the US former worker........  Consider this....... "The United States was the world's largest beef producer, second-largest importer, and fourth-largest exporter by volume in 2019".  Let that soak in as you consider what the potential for beef demand might be.

And the question remains on Saturday May 29, How strong is demand for commodities?    5 days after that magical date when sd says all is back to normal in production.  Corn is still unplanted in areas and it is cool and down here in the sun belt there is a serious lack of sun.  One day in the last 12 we had sunshine.  Corn is up maybe 50 % in southern ks,  what's up looks good.   The cool weather is improving below average wheat fields Except a stretch along I-70 that saw wheat detasseled by hail.  Wheat on normal fill should be ready to harvest a month late.  Wonder if the crop tour took that into consideration?  By the way they finally looked at my field 2 weeks after they reported what they found ...... Covid impared as they are. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Chinese credit taper or rain?

In true Sd style.....

Anyone notice these dates ... the US won't sober up until June. 

How late is it to be talking about the potential of drought in Brazil?  This season is toast in Brazil..... No big harvest there.

Or are we talking about 2022 crops now???

How did the rain forest Harvard Endowment soybean crop go this year???   Surely we should be able to get a few details by June 2021.

How did saving the planet with endowment investment go for those Boston Farmers???



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