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Contributor
Posts: 8
Registered: ‎06-06-2013

Cold hard math

So I decided to do some math on how far we have to go on this corn growing thing, and after digging up the weekly average temps for the Albert Lea Minnesota area ( figured it was a good landmark) here is what we're up against. Assuming you even got corn planted around here ( USDA is figuring the prevent planting acres will still average 120 bpa) and using a May 15th planting date, which is early given how wet it was, and figuring a 100 day corn that is now tasseling:

GDU's to date - 1240

Using the 10 day forecast will add 160 GDU's ( fat people like me like 70 degrees, corn not so much )

Balance of August using historical averages will add 527 GDU's

September gets to be fun as each week drops in temps, 1st week 98, 2nd week 84, 3rd week 70, 4th week 35 + 2 days = 10

October is great corn growing weather, 1st week 11 and I'm being REAL generous here by using 10 GDU's a week for the rest of the month when historical averages are pointing towards ZERO heat units at this point.

So using old school math that gives us 2265 GDU's through the end of October to reach maturity on a hybrid that needs 2450 to black layer. HMM, that means we're short 285 heat units somewhere. Ahh, don't worry there's global warming everywhere, I stepped in some this morning, so lets say that November yields a blistering heat dome of an average temp of October weather ( not likely, but I'll play along) that gets us to black layer right on black Friday after Thanksgiving.

One teeny, tiny detail I forgot to mention was that the 50 year historical date of a 28 degree frost comes in at October 6th.

These are only numbers based on long term averages folks, but in these parts, we are a LONG way from making it. Yes, there will be shorter maturity hybrids that got planted, yes there were earlier planting dates. BUT, a LOT of corn got planted after the 15th and clear into the 2nd week of June. That's going to make it?

I've been around a long time and remember deer hunting in t shirts, and plowing in Novemeber with a shirt off. It's also snowed on Labor day, and been frozen solid in October, anything can happen.

I sure hope ther'es a lot of that "excellent looking" corn out there to make up for the corn flakes that are coming.

 

Semper Fi

Senior Contributor
Posts: 180
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
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Re: Cold hard math

And I was still having a good day until now! We might get a good cold slap of reality in the future but it won't be totally known for close to a year afterwards on corn if not longer. Soybeans could be a rocket ride, too much of this country was planted late to be comfortable going into this fall with any notions that even normal weather won't affect the crop. Best senario, late fall and a late harvest. Likely to still see a lot of green beans in the mix no matter what, and an early end to the growing season, boom!
Senior Contributor
Posts: 315
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Cold hard math

Frontseat while your math is right you have to take in consideration of what a sustain period of daily average temps below 50 degrees does to a corn plant it basically shuts down and maturity is hastened resulting in lower test weight and yield.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 777
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Cold hard math

Your math is correct but I think there has only been one market rally on a frost in the past 40 years....  But I think the trade has really skipped ahead on this one with price...

Contributor
Posts: 8
Registered: ‎06-06-2013
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Re: Cold hard math

NDF you are correct by saying that. It's been my experience that tells me that once temps drop into the mid 50's or below, it takes 6 hrs of daylight just to get back to even. My larger point of the post was purely mathematical and not to get into the finer points of the agronomics. Once September arrives, daylight is a premium and any diversion from "above average " temps, will take that much longer to reach maturity. The end result is still the same regardless of what fact tells us - plenty of corn, nothing to see here.....

 

Semper Fi

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,303
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Cold hard math

I still contend this market is wrong. Those that continue to sell this thing must not have yet made some bottom side target they have been aiming for. Nothing seems to be able to spur this market higher, not sales, not weather, not the lateness of the crop. And I havé to wonder, what is that bottom side target before we bounce. If $4.00 is where we're really headed, the repercussions to the entire farm economy would be severe for a while. And, who knows, maybe that's the plan to drop the price where those that just strung themselves out on high priced land and inputs get burned.
As more than just I have been saying, this market has made no sense. I'll just bet it makes sense to someone.

Jen
Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: Cold hard math

[ Edited ]

It has made perfect sense to alot of folks, they just lack the courage to post on this site. Just as many short corn in chicago as are long. I suspect our freind Ray J. or his company have been very well positioned.

 

For example, you can belittle the 2 mil acres of corn in the deep south, but they are acres and it is cool and moist in most of the area, great corn weather. Corn that will be harvested in Sept at the latest.

 

And I am not trying to be offensive, just merely trying to share that this is exactly what happens every year after a drought. Every one.

This is not news to anyone, especially the end-users of corn who have done remarkably well throughout this "shortage".

 

Of course, as you say, I am stupid. And before I am villified as a "Forever Bear". It is actually a great time to cover hedges, especially the 2014 stuff. All you say about the crop might be true after all.

 

Our small insignifcant corner of the world is working on 6 tenths for the month of July so we share your pain, it just doesn't have much to do with money flow driven grain prices. It might later, but that is later, not July when it is raining in IA, and on LaSalle Street.

 

Contributor
Posts: 8
Registered: ‎10-03-2012
0

Re: Cold hard math

Pretty sure all of ND has been under 55 the last couple of nights witht the next couple slated to be around 44!!!!

 

My may 12th corn has a small shot to make it. Thought I was fine a week ago but we haven't hit 75 since then. Corn has stopped growing. Looks absolutely perfect but problem is its falling behind and it is sure tough to catch up when the next week forecast has us on average 10 degrees below average for highs.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 9,317
Registered: ‎05-10-2010

Re: Cold hard math

What is becoming evident is that corn and soybean growers are deciding the the Usda reports are not always wrong and while we may produce less, they are certain we will produce enough.

 

Buyers and endusers that have paid the piper via the  strong basis levels are comfortable that they have secured enough product to get them to harvest and the emergency of running short has evaporated. At least until months from now.

 

When Mr. Jenkins was giving you early warning that basis would collapse, some of you ridiculed him as to having some deviant motive. He was not blowing smoke as you well know by now.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: Cold hard math

"Mr. Jenkins."  I like that one krafty.