Come Monday

[NCcorntrader]

First off, my apologies for not stopping by in such a long time. For those that remember my evening posts, yes I am still trading corn futures.

In any case, what brings me here this evening is an event that I have not seen yet in 3+ years of trading, and if anyone out there can provide additional insight I would be grateful. I am nearly certain that Friday will be the last day of the CN3 contract as the front month (default) contract. (I have looked everywhere on the CME website and cannot find a published date for this change. It is usually the Friday before the first position date for the contract but not always) This means that on Monday the new default contract will be CZ3 (this also assumes that they will skip CU3 like they did last year, but again, I cant find this published anywhere).

Now getting to my point- on this Friday anyone interested in corn will go to their computer, get a quote for /ZC and it will come up lets say 675. This is really a quote for CN3. On Monday do the same thing, /ZC, and get ... 564???!!! Think of what the /ZC graph is going to look like!!

Now please understand I know how the system works and what these numbers really mean so a tutorial is not needed. BUT... I have never seen this big of a spread on the change date of the front month (default) contract. Last year the spread was around 20 cents. Occasionally the spread from one contract to the next has been 30-40 but never $1.20!!

I could speculate on what is going to happen based on history but you guys can look up the data just as well.

All very interesting in any case. I guess we will find out soon enough

[Shaggy98]

Possibly a chance to position one's self for a long position?

[sw363535]

Bkadds and I are watching the same thing,

I have stated a few weeks ago that New crop should be leading the market  and it is not ---- until the last couple of days.  But the spread is so great.

The ethanol bid locally is not wanting to use CU to set August bids and their basis drops from 1.20+ to 45+ on new crop( CZ based)

Meanings------????

The demand side of the market is betting on a big fall crop.

The demand side of the market thinks they can capture contracted bushels that must be contracted to finance operating capital and                       haven't got that done yet.

Basis is going to go from 1.20+ to 2.45+ -------------------------- can't imagine that.......

-----------------------------------------------------------

The fact is we have never(or at least rarely) been in this thin a position when it comes to inventory.

What do you think is going to happen ?---------- Dec corn ----- have you been buying it?  someone sure has the last couple of days.

Thanks for taking the time 

[NCcorntrader]

sw-

well lets just say I sure as heck havent been shorting it.

history says we should see a rocket shot on about Tuesday but its just so obvious I have to wonder.

[giolucas]

Nc,

Glad to see you are still around.

[sw363535]

just where I am ----------  It looks too good to be true.  Only thing that i think supports it is another very poor winter wheat crop overall. But that usually doesn't lite any fires in the market until august.

We certainly had a buying opportunity last week.

[sw363535]

The spread players should be smiling.  They should be in and not caring why.

[highyields]

cash corn will go as high as people want to buy it.  Now with the inventory report on ethanol not good, lets not get to far ahead of ourselves.   Dec corn should go to $6,  my local ethanol plant has been bidding off the Dec for most of June with a 1.45 positive basis...I'm getting an itchy trigger finger on corn I have to sell yet.  I don't think we will see $8 cash corn.   and I don't want to be the last man standing with corn this time around...

---

@NCcorntrader wrote:

First off, my apologies for not stopping by in such a long time. For those that remember my evening posts, yes I am still trading corn futures.

In any case, what brings me here this evening is an event that I have not seen yet in 3+ years of trading, and if anyone out there can provide additional insight I would be grateful. I am nearly certain that Friday will be the last day of the CN3 contract as the front month (default) contract. (I have looked everywhere on the CME website and cannot find a published date for this change. It is usually the Friday before the first position date for the contract but not always) This means that on Monday the new default contract will be CZ3 (this also assumes that they will skip CU3 like they did last year, but again, I cant find this published anywhere).

Now getting to my point- on this Friday anyone interested in corn will go to their computer, get a quote for /ZC and it will come up lets say 675. This is really a quote for CN3. On Monday do the same thing, /ZC, and get ... 564???!!! Think of what the /ZC graph is going to look like!!

Now please understand I know how the system works and what these numbers really mean so a tutorial is not needed. BUT... I have never seen this big of a spread on the change date of the front month (default) contract. Last year the spread was around 20 cents. Occasionally the spread from one contract to the next has been 30-40 but never $1.20!!

I could speculate on what is going to happen based on history but you guys can look up the data just as well.

All very interesting in any case. I guess we will find out soon enough

---

[NCcorntrader]

Gio-

thnx and same. looks like Big Ben has thrown a monkey wrench into trading today. i have my stops nearby.

[Shaggy98]

Isn't it ironic that it takes a national announcement that our economy is showing signs of improvement and just like that everything turns south.