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Senior Contributor
Posts: 524
Registered: ‎09-20-2018
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Re: Congratulations To vrbuck !

Well if you do remember, December corn was still lead contract on that date, and was trading somewhere near $3.70. There was a double top in place up at $3.79, and all signs pointed to a measured drop in price with a projected low of the $3.42 level of support. December corn then proceeded down to the $3.55 level before the contract expired. The expiration of the contract caused a large position flow into the March contract, and since March is start of a new season rather continuation of the old season, a whole different set of variables influenced price. The March contract then started moving higher, the $3.42 level was not achieved, but - and this is important - the move back up was not instantaneous so that anyone who was short from the $3.70 area had a good chance to say the short trade was not working anymore so maybe its time to either cover short positions or not sell any more forward production. 

 

Its hard enough getting direction correct in these commodity markets, especially nowadays when there are all kinds of screwy computer programs looking at all kinds of factors in determining whether to buy or sell. So if you can pick up ten cents or more on a speculative position, be grateful for the profit even if you got out before the ultimate target was reached. If you are executing a hedging strategy, then you should be much more area rather than price driven and you should not be hedging all too much of your crop at any one price area. The important thing to remember in hedging strategies is you want to place your forward production in price regions which will be profitable to you even if the price goes higher. That's why you don't empty the bin at any one price but rather scale into a position. Many of vrbuck's calls tell you where the short term moves are going to be and when, and then he also tells you about where he expects the big trend changers to occur. If you're a hedger pay attention to the big trend changing areas, and if a speculator then pay attention to the short term price predictions. 

Advisor
Posts: 1,140
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Congratulations To vrbuck !

We did not take out the nov 8 high I called. We still haven’t taken out the nov 8 high. I never said to sell grain either. I also said support had to hold on the uptrend line or it gets worse. I am hoping for further upside potential with this low, possible that we take out the nov 8 highs. Trading ranges are hard. You get bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.

Or maybe I can Blame it on harmonic highs verses emotional highs.
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Contributor
Posts: 20
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: Congratulations To vrbuck !

No worries here, I sold 20% of our corn on 11/13 . NON GMO corn. With premium we net 3.98. That got us to almost 40% sold. Just having a little fun with you. Probably will price our April  contract on the next price bump, whenever that is.