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Veteran Advisor

Contest !!!

With low prices for commodities, high input
Cost, and real possibility for delayed planting....

What LEGAL crop can you raise and make
A profit ?

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8 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Contest !!!

Until you know your yield and price, all crops have the potential of being profitable.   Planting delays look highly likely around "here" but if the weather turns around and gets extremely nice to counter the degree that it`s been extremely crappy, we might get in the field before May.   But I fear it`ll be another one of those years where Jim Meade Smiley Happy and over in Illinois there will be reports of "perfect growing conditions!" and the even lower prices will trade on that, while northern Iowa, S Minnesota continue with the bullseye on our backs.  

 

Then they`ll say "you haaaad the opportunity to sell $4 corn and $10 beans!" like fun we did!  We only could`ve only locked in $3.60 corn and not even $9 beans at this point.  

 

But I guess top third marketers lock in the small loss and "buy a call!" 

Honored Advisor

Re: Contest !!!

It's March 15th.  There are no planting delays in the midwest.................................................yet.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Contest !!!

Better question.

 

Have you ever been able to plant a crop with the assurance of profit at planting time?

And if so what year?

 

Even in 2012 &2013 I remember not being able to raise a crop without pumping large amounts of water, and thinking this was going to be a race between the input costs and the farmer to see who got the potential profit prize.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Contest !!!

How does one exactly figure "profit" these days?  After 5 years of resigning myself to just donating my time, labor, living expense, owned land costs and machinery & bins that "I have anyway", don`t know if I recognized a "profit" these days if it bit me on the behind   Smiley Happy    I think it`s called "burning equity" and that can be a silent & greedy partner. 

 

If we are going to have planting delays, this is how it starts...course it can start anytime, April 25th and a 7" downpour and 2" a week there after can knock you on your can as well.   But just because NIa and SMn are Swamp Loggin` .."don`t get that feller stuck Simitrio!"  doesn`t mean the rest of the corn growing areas won`t have it good and the DeKodies like a lot of rain. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Contest !!!

Sounds  like  some  of  the   DeKodies  - folks  have  hit  the  brakes  on  the  exuberance  of  ea$y  money  row  cropping,  although  the  weed  of  the  week  fellows,   are  still  optimistic  -  Smiley Wink 

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Highlighted
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Contest !!!

You won't like the answer Elchappie

 

Corn, and, Soybeans

ROE of 12% in 2018

 

Of course, we don't waste money on tillage, or insecticides, or fungicides,

or triple stack genetics, or lots of other things, still run 9770's to cut seed

beans for example. Old trucks, old pickups, but brand new GPS controllers,

computers and software, and a little hog/chicken litter thrown in to help build Carbon (OM).

 

To be fair, 25% of that was the Trump Bump, since we sold all the beans in March of 18. :-)

 

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" from Dickinson seems quite

appropriate for crop ag these days.

 

Most don't know the rest of the paragraph, the most important part of the opening...

 

"it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness....it was the season of

light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter

of despair."

 

Ageless words that have meaning every day, for just about every one.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Contest !!!

Cotton did pretty good for growers “here” last year. Sounds like acreage may go up
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Honored Advisor

Re: Contest !!!

No guarantees. But cotton leads with fsa price support in a profitable position. Beans- corn. -wheat. - cattle grazing. —- all have potential to profit
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