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Veteran Advisor

Contest

Who is the first to have a new crop corn bid with a 3 in front of it?  We are just a couple of sessions away here. 

 

Obviously, either the world is crashing and/or 166 may be to low.   LOL.   Either way, I am shorting John Deere stock.

 

Lets, see, in 2006, just six short years ago, corn was trading under 1.80 in these parts of woods.  Wow, what a ride.

 

 

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7 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Contest

Short John Deere stock?  Bill Gates owns more stock in John Deere than any other stock holder so I'm hangin on.  Warren Buffet's portfolio is full of coca cola stock so I'm hanging on to mine.  If those two guys go down the tubes I'm going with them. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Contest

jec22......you really give your corn to SC Coop at -65Z during harvest??

 

build some bins and make 50 cents in 4 months....

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Advisor

Re: Contest

The ag media is trying its best to convince us that our world is coming to an end. Corn now below cost of production for many.

You would think a record crop is in the bin. Not going to give mine to em at these prices.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Contest

Soon four weeks without rain.  Backyard only , much of Iowa in much better shape.  Drove 63, DSM-south, wow, lot of great looking crops.   They dropped the rain amounts for the next couple of days last night.  Not a problem, as long as it just rains here Smiley Happy

 

Point I was making, there are some growing issues out there, and yet I would assume somewhere in the US there is a cash bid very close to starting with a three if we have just one limit down day.  Seems like the corn market is on a suicide watch. 

A few weeks ago people were saying we better look at taking ethanol off the table to perserve supply.  Those people must have wanted two dollar corn. With new crop bids, ethanol has to be profitable if crude stays above 70.

 

Ray, if it don't rain, I have too much storage already.  I can still grow a very good crop or a very poor crop.  But there are fields in my neck of the woods that have the poorest stands I have seen in years-they can't crop a good crop. 

 

Then there is always the possiblity that we grow a poor crop and still have poor prices.  With all the debt problems in the world, it makes me shake my head that farmers that hold some of last years crop until they have the next one are labeled as 'stupid'.  That used to be called wise.  Oh, how times have changed.

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Advisor

Re: Contest

Funds have been leaning hard on the corn. Cash and futures are disconnecting. Basis levels in certain areas are white hot so it becomes a function of the cash markets.

Ag media is so concerned about exports however a lot of these firm basis levels idicate local need. You can't tell a steer he'll have to wait until September to eat again.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Contest

Ray,  You said:

jec22......you really give your corn to SC Coop at -65Z during harvest??

 

build some bins and make 50 cents in 4 months....

 

What I grow you could handle in less than a half day.  Pennies compared to the volume you handle.  So why doesn't Cargill build the bins and make the quick 50  cents.  Major bucks.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Contest

cost per bushel for space and infrastructure to move 50K bushels per hour is huge at a processor as compared to farm size operations....building a 1 myn tank, legs, and conveyor would run $4-5 per bushel

 

in the end, you have to decide if you are a processor or an elevator....ROI on capital projects for improving the processing end of things outweighs money for "more space" .....and nothing wrong with letting someone else make money storing corn...we just want to be able to have market access to the bushels when it's time for you to sell

 

we turn our flowable corn space 60X per year.....

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