Corn Crop Size

[saturated]

Year:	Yield:	5 yr. Avg.	10 yr. Avg.	Upper Band	Lower Band	BIG	SMALL
1921	27.8
1922	26.3
1923	27.8
1924	22.1
1925	27.4
1926	25.7	25.86
1927	26.4	25.88
1928	26.3	25.58
1929	25.7	26.3
1930	20.5	24.92	25.6
1931	24.5	24.68	25.27
1932	26.5	24.7	25.29	25.592	24.988	Big
1933	22.8	24	24.79	25.369	24.211		Small
1934	18.7	22.6	24.45	25.266	23.634		Small
1935	24.2	23.34	24.13	25.158	23.102
1936	18.6	22.16	23.42	24.838	22.002		Small
1937	28.9	22.64	23.67	25.163	22.177	Big
1938	27.8	23.64	23.82	25.306	22.334	Big
1939	29.9	25.88	24.24	25.658	22.822	Big
1940	28.9	26.82	25.08	26.359	23.801	Big
1941	31.2	29.34	25.75	27.181	24.319	Big
1942	35.4	30.64	26.64	28.536	24.744	Big
1943	32.6	31.6	27.62	30.249	24.991	Big
1944	33	32.22	29.05	32.647	25.453	Big
1945	33.1	33.06	29.94	34.351	25.529
1946	37.2	34.26	31.8	37.088	26.512	Big
1947	28.6	32.9	31.77	37.387	26.153
1948	43	34.98	33.29	39.241	27.339	Big
1949	38.2	36.02	34.12	40.182	28.058
1950	36.9	36.78	34.92	40.983	28.857
1951	36.9	36.72	35.49	41.319	29.661
1952	41.8	39.36	36.13	41.587	30.673	Big
1953	40.7	38.9	36.94	41.971	31.909
1954	39.4	39.14	37.58	42.291	32.869
1955	42	40.16	38.47	42.867	34.073
1956	47.4	42.26	39.49	44.031	34.949	Big
1957	48.3	43.56	41.46	46.259	36.661	Big
1958	52.8	45.98	42.44	47.689	37.191	Big
1959	53.1	48.72	43.93	49.767	38.093	Big
1960	54.7	51.26	45.71	52.304	39.116	Big
1961	62.4	54.26	48.26	55.910	40.610	Big

[saturated]

1962	64.7	57.54	50.55	59.310	41.790	Big
1963	67.9	60.56	53.27	63.286	43.254	Big
1964	62.9	62.52	55.62	66.717	44.523
1965	74.1	66.4	58.83	71.120	46.540	Big
1966	74.1	68.74	61.5	74.780	48.220
1967	80.1	71.82	64.68	79.134	50.226	Big
1968	79.5	74.14	67.35	82.589	52.111
1969	85.9	78.74	70.63	86.538	54.722
1970	72.4	78.4	72.4	88.362	56.438
1971	88.1	81.2	74.97	90.912	59.028
1972	97	84.58	78.2	94.151	62.249	Big
1973	91.3	86.94	80.54	96.351	64.729
1974	71.9	84.14	81.44	96.424	66.456
1975	86.4	86.94	82.67	96.670	68.670
1976	88	86.92	84.06	96.857	71.263
1977	90.8	85.68	85.13	96.711	73.549
1978	101	87.62	87.28	97.838	76.722	Big
1979	109.5	95.14	89.64	99.796	79.484	Big
1980	91	96.06	91.5	101.164	81.836
1981	108.9	100.24	93.58	103.090	84.070	Big
1982	113.2	104.72	95.2	105.024	85.376	Big
1983	81.1	100.74	94.18	103.764	84.596		Small
1984	106.7	100.18	97.66	107.426	87.894
1985	118	105.58	100.82	111.127	90.513	Big
1986	119.4	107.68	103.96	115.091	92.829	Big
1987	119.8	109	106.86	118.756	94.964	Big
1988	84.6	109.7	105.22	116.677	93.763		Small
1989	116.3	111.62	105.9	116.831	94.969
1990	118.5	111.72	108.65	119.410	97.890
1991	108.6	109.56	108.62	118.891	98.349
1992	131.5	111.9	110.45	120.330	100.570	Big
1993	100.7	115.12	112.41	120.816	104.004		Small
1994	138.6	119.58	115.6	123.727	107.473	Big
1995	113.5	118.58	115.15	122.856	107.444
1996	127.1	122.28	115.92	123.663	108.177	Big
1997	127	121.38	116.64	124.769	108.511	Big
1998	132	127.64	121.38	130.295	112.465	Big
1999	133.8	126.68	123.13	132.484	113.776	Big
2000	136.9	131.36	124.97	135.126	114.814	Big
2001	138.2	133.58	127.93	138.737	117.123
2002	129.3	134.04	127.71	138.426	116.994
2003	142.2	136.08	131.86	143.332	120.388
2004	160.3	141.38	134.03	146.644	121.416	Big
2005	147.9	143.58	137.47	150.987	123.953
2006	149.1	145.76	139.67	153.536	125.804
2007	150.7	150.04	142.04	155.603	128.477
2008	153.9	152.38	144.23	158.220	130.240
2009	164.7	153.26	147.32	161.794	132.846	Big
2010	152.8	154.24	148.91	163.397	134.423
2011	158.7	156.16	150.96	165.559	136.361

[saturated]

Using a table of yields reported by the USDA for crop years 1921 to present, built a table of 5/yr and 10/yr averages along with Bollinger Bands based on the 10/yr average. Bollinger Bands are 2 standard deviations from a base(10/yr avg.). The far right columns are used to signify years the corn yield is outside the bands.

Looking at the table, the years 1993 and 1995 stand out. 1993 was the last year that the crop yield was below the lower band. The crop yield for 1995 was the last to be under the 10/yr average. During 1993, flooding and a drought in parts of the Ohio Valley were issues. In 1995 a late Spring combining with heat during key stages of the corn development were difficulties.

Looking at the crop this year I feel three factors will affect the overall size to the downside. 1) Extensive flooding 2) Lateness in regard to Preventive Planting acres 3) Drought and to a lesser extent storm damage.

In the last report, the government is using 85 million harvested acres based off of surveys of farmers in the beginning of June. The yield component is 158.7 bushels per acre. Giving a crop of about 13.5 billion bushels.

Harvested acres is less then planted acres due to corn cut for silage, and localized problems. Due to flooding and crop lateness I feel harvested acres should be in the area of 80 million acres instead of the present estimate of 85 million acres(Using same percentage USDA used in 1993 and 1988, 86%). For yield I will plug in 150 bushels per acre. This number corresponds to the present 10/yr average. 150 X 80 yields a 12 billion corn crop. The reasons I am using the lower number is because of the present drought monitor and the poor root system some plants have developed due to excessive moisture.

If the drought area was to enlarge substantially I would lean toward using a number at or below the lower Bollinger Band which is in the area of 134(bushels/acre). 134 X 80(million acres) gives a crop of about 10.7 billion bushels.

[JRfrom OR]

interesting chart.  Being 2009 was a light test weight year (I guess)  for corn, what would you say that years yield would be in tons versres other years?  Still, are the huge leaps in yield beggining to level off?

[nwobcw]

   Very interesting chart.  2004 showed a sizeable jump with only  1 year since with a better average.  It makes 1 wonder if those 2 years were a fluke.

[rightone]

likely to be close.

Folks say IA looks real good, possible record, same for MN, NE, WI.

[DW11]

Rightone,

You have an interesting take on the crop size with most sources viewing the crop as shrinking from the USDA estimate, not growing larger.  Southwest Minnesota is not great from what I have seen: too wet early and planted later than optimal.  I have heard Wisconsin is not all good either and Nebraska dryland usually takes a hit with a heatwave like we have had recently.   

[timetippingpt]

Excellent data format. Very useful to see the avg vs. the trend.

It would seem to me that you and I would see a couple of things just a little differently.

1) the 92 mil is a real number in my view. From it I would take off 2 mil for flooding, etc etc. = 90 mil

2) Using the 86% harvested acreage number is likely very inaccurate. With the new genetics that take heat very well and extremely high prices, it is far more likely we harvest a similar 92% (I already accounted for flooding by dropping to 90 mil acres.

3) Yield, which is indeed impossible to call at this point. Clearly lots of places are less than ideal, while many others are very solid, but not hearing of any true "perfect" spots. Just based upon temps and precip and genetics, I'd take a shot in the dark and use a 153 national yield.

NET = 12.665 corn crop.

This is very close to what the market is currently trading wouldn't you think?

Kind of amazing how seemingly small changes make a billion bushel difference.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

we will struggle to keep pace with so called trendline..........IMO we have for several years and its only going to get harder..........since trendline is a laggin indicator it will take years for it to flatten...........we are closer to the averages in reality, while trendline pushes the upper end of the bands..........several ideas why this is.......

as for crop size...........82.34 harvested @ 156 = 12.845..........been using 156 for months, still holding to it.........soya at 73.5 @ 41 = 3.014............been at that number for months...........

as for the market, no way is it trading that size of a crop.............2011 crop will be same or more as 2010 crop and we are set up for a 2012 acreage battle already............