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Contributor

Corn Crop Size

Year:Yield:5 yr. Avg.10 yr. Avg.Upper BandLower BandBIGSMALL
192127.8

    
192226.3

    
192327.8

    
192422.1      
192527.4      
192625.725.86     
192726.425.88     
192826.325.58     
192925.726.3     
193020.524.9225.6    
193124.524.6825.27    
193226.524.725.2925.59224.988Big 
193322.82424.7925.36924.211 Small
193418.722.624.4525.26623.634 Small
193524.223.3424.1325.15823.102  
193618.622.1623.4224.83822.002 Small
193728.922.6423.6725.16322.177Big 
193827.823.6423.8225.30622.334Big 
193929.925.8824.2425.65822.822Big 
194028.926.8225.0826.35923.801Big 
194131.229.3425.7527.18124.319Big 
194235.430.6426.6428.53624.744Big 
194332.631.627.6230.24924.991Big 
19443332.2229.0532.64725.453Big 
194533.133.0629.9434.35125.529  
194637.234.2631.837.08826.512Big 
194728.632.931.7737.38726.153  
19484334.9833.2939.24127.339Big 
194938.236.0234.1240.18228.058  
195036.936.7834.9240.98328.857  
195136.936.7235.4941.31929.661  
195241.839.3636.1341.58730.673Big 
195340.738.936.9441.97131.909  
195439.439.1437.5842.29132.869  
19554240.1638.4742.86734.073  
195647.442.2639.4944.03134.949Big 
195748.343.5641.4646.25936.661Big 
195852.845.9842.4447.68937.191Big 
195953.148.7243.9349.76738.093Big 
196054.751.2645.7152.30439.116Big 
196162.454.2648.2655.91040.610Big 

8 Replies
Contributor

Re: Corn Crop Size

196264.757.5450.5559.31041.790Big 
196367.960.5653.2763.28643.254Big 
196462.962.5255.6266.71744.523  
196574.166.458.8371.12046.540Big 
196674.168.7461.574.78048.220  
196780.171.8264.6879.13450.226Big 
196879.574.1467.3582.58952.111  
196985.978.7470.6386.53854.722  
197072.478.472.488.36256.438  
197188.181.274.9790.91259.028  
19729784.5878.294.15162.249Big 
197391.386.9480.5496.35164.729  
197471.984.1481.4496.42466.456  
197586.486.9482.6796.67068.670  
19768886.9284.0696.85771.263  
197790.885.6885.1396.71173.549  
197810187.6287.2897.83876.722Big 
1979109.595.1489.6499.79679.484Big 
19809196.0691.5101.16481.836  
1981108.9100.2493.58103.09084.070Big 
1982113.2104.7295.2105.02485.376Big 
198381.1100.7494.18103.76484.596 Small
1984106.7100.1897.66107.42687.894  
1985118105.58100.82111.12790.513Big 
1986119.4107.68103.96115.09192.829Big 
1987119.8109106.86118.75694.964Big 
198884.6109.7105.22116.67793.763 Small
1989116.3111.62105.9116.83194.969  
1990118.5111.72108.65119.41097.890  
1991108.6109.56108.62118.89198.349  
1992131.5111.9110.45120.330100.570Big 
1993100.7115.12112.41120.816104.004 Small
1994138.6119.58115.6123.727107.473Big 
1995113.5118.58115.15122.856107.444  
1996127.1122.28115.92123.663108.177Big 
1997127121.38116.64124.769108.511Big 
1998132127.64121.38130.295112.465Big 
1999133.8126.68123.13132.484113.776Big 
2000136.9131.36124.97135.126114.814Big 
2001138.2133.58127.93138.737117.123  
2002129.3134.04127.71138.426116.994  
2003142.2136.08131.86143.332120.388  
2004160.3141.38134.03146.644121.416Big 
2005147.9143.58137.47150.987123.953  
2006149.1145.76139.67153.536125.804  
2007150.7150.04142.04155.603128.477  
2008153.9152.38144.23158.220130.240  
2009164.7153.26147.32161.794132.846Big 
2010152.8154.24148.91163.397134.423  
2011158.7156.16150.96165.559136.361  

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Contributor

Re: Corn Crop Size

Using a table of yields reported by the USDA for crop years 1921 to present, built a table of 5/yr and 10/yr averages along with Bollinger Bands based on the 10/yr average. Bollinger Bands are 2 standard deviations from a base(10/yr avg.). The far right columns are used to signify years the corn yield is outside the bands.

Looking at the table, the years 1993 and 1995 stand out. 1993 was the last year that the crop yield was below the lower band. The crop yield for 1995 was the last to be under the 10/yr average. During 1993, flooding and a drought in parts of the Ohio Valley were issues. In 1995 a late Spring combining with heat during key stages of the corn development were difficulties.

Looking at the crop this year I feel three factors will affect the overall size to the downside. 1) Extensive flooding 2) Lateness in regard to Preventive Planting acres 3) Drought and to a lesser extent storm damage.

In the last report, the government is using 85 million harvested acres based off of surveys of farmers in the beginning of June. The yield component is 158.7 bushels per acre. Giving a crop of about 13.5 billion bushels.

Harvested acres is less then planted acres due to corn cut for silage, and localized problems. Due to flooding and crop lateness I feel harvested acres should be in the area of 80 million acres instead of the present estimate of 85 million acres(Using same percentage USDA used in 1993 and 1988, 86%). For yield I will plug in 150 bushels per acre. This number corresponds to the present 10/yr average. 150 X 80 yields a 12 billion corn crop. The reasons I am using the lower number is because of the present drought monitor and the poor root system some plants have developed due to excessive moisture.

If the drought area was to enlarge substantially I would lean toward using a number at or below the lower Bollinger Band which is in the area of 134(bushels/acre). 134 X 80(million acres) gives a crop of about 10.7 billion bushels.

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Corn Crop Size

interesting chart.  Being 2009 was a light test weight year (I guess)  for corn, what would you say that years yield would be in tons versres other years?  Still, are the huge leaps in yield beggining to level off?

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Advisor

Re: Corn Crop Size

   Very interesting chart.  2004 showed a sizeable jump with only  1 year since with a better average.  It makes 1 wonder if those 2 years were a fluke.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Corn Crop Size, 84m x 160

likely to be close.

 

Folks say IA looks real good, possible record, same for MN, NE, WI.

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Corn Crop Size, 84m x 160

Rightone,

 

You have an interesting take on the crop size with most sources viewing the crop as shrinking from the USDA estimate, not growing larger.  Southwest Minnesota is not great from what I have seen: too wet early and planted later than optimal.  I have heard Wisconsin is not all good either and Nebraska dryland usually takes a hit with a heatwave like we have had recently.   

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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Crop Size

Excellent data format. Very useful to see the avg vs. the trend.

 

It would seem to me that you and I would see a couple of things just a little differently.

 

1) the 92 mil is a real number in my view. From it I would take off 2 mil for flooding, etc etc. = 90 mil

2) Using the 86% harvested acreage number is likely very inaccurate. With the new genetics that take heat very well and extremely high prices, it is far more likely we harvest a similar 92% (I already accounted for flooding by dropping to 90 mil acres.

3) Yield, which is indeed impossible to call at this point. Clearly lots of places are less than ideal, while many others are very solid, but not hearing of any true "perfect" spots. Just based upon temps and precip and genetics, I'd take a shot in the dark and use a 153 national yield.

 

NET = 12.665 corn crop.

 

This is very close to what the market is currently trading wouldn't you think?

Kind of amazing how seemingly small changes make a billion bushel difference.

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Senior Advisor

trendline vs average.......

we will struggle to keep pace with so called trendline..........IMO we have for several years and its only going to get harder..........since trendline is a laggin indicator it will take years for it to flatten...........we are closer to the averages in reality, while trendline pushes the upper end of the bands..........several ideas why this is.......

 

as for crop size...........82.34 harvested @ 156 = 12.845..........been using 156 for months, still holding to it.........soya at 73.5 @ 41 = 3.014............been at that number for months...........

 

as for the market, no way is it trading that size of a crop.............2011 crop will be same or more as 2010 crop and we are set up for a 2012 acreage battle already............

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