Corn --- For trend charters

[sw363535]

A question.

Last week saw a drop in corn price below trend chart line for a day or so.  

What do you use for an indicator that this is a break from the trend???

a.  A second day finish below trend line.

b.  the failure to make a new high within a few trading days.

c.  solid supply/demand driving information--- like an event.

• 

d.---------------other

[c-x-1]

sw,

happy to give it a whirl.

-short but unhelpful answer is--several conditions/indicators/lines, including wkly COT report (primarily how the commercial $$$ is flowing).

-using the daily bar chart as a median timeframe-wise - i have to know the larger perspective - larger the better...and define the timeframe trend you are interested in. For example, the bear mkt Corn was in for 17 months or so had many smaller trend changes--just depends on your timeframe.

uptrends-esp soon after they begin-will break that uptrend line pretty decisively to clean out weak hands ---breaking the trend temporarily, therefore, becomes a necessary prerequisite for that trend to continue...........call it re-fueling.

i believe i said w/in last couple of days that i believe corn has completed #1 and is pausing for 2-4 wks- #2 (since high was put in).

and b/c the latest bear was 4th longest outta 20 since 1900--odds the uptrend remains intact are exceedingly high.

seasonally, matters seem right on time--pausing until planting pace capitulates--then a resumption of up - #3 for (weather premium) or until a clearer quantity of production can be calculated (empirically or otherwise).

hope this helps.

c-x-1 

[sw363535]

thanks cx,

It has given us some nice opportunity to make some spring "old crop" sales as we scale up.  But it has been a pretty steep rebound.

I appreciate your thoughts.

[c-x-1]

you're welcome - hope I make some sense w/ my rambling.

one of my tech mentor's "sayings" is (EVERYTHING MATTERS) - he is referring to the chart bars, where the trendlines are, etc........but I sort of take it a step more -- that ALL information matters or potentially influences price discovery.

talking with y'all has helped me see how the true economics dances with the charts and how the storytellers influence things as well...all inter-related.

....and so it's funny (intriguing/interesting) how a 2 bil carryover trends towards 1 bil...and this weeks sales are an important reminder - the demand throttle ain't lettin' up one cotton pickin' bit, so far!.....i can most certainly see an ending scenario(come August-time) being much closer to 1 than 1.5 b---then you glance over your shoulder to see we were just 100-something under 1 bil last year....then this fundamental trend allows the chart trend and projections to sort of add up.

all the while world demand winks back at the market saying, "oh no, we needed it-just couldn't afford it as well at 7 as we can 5 bucks..........................................."