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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

Gio, does "simple business" tell us that China has been a good trading partner....beyond the bean?

 

Image result for trade deficit with china by year

 

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2017/04/01/averting-a-chinese-american-trade-war

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Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

'20 my moms grandma had her place taken for the proving ground.  we might be related Smiley Surprised

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

BA,
These tariffs has caused you and I to pay more on all these Chinese products. Has the trade deficit vanished? NO. Is manufacturing coming back to the US? NO. Are farmers hurting? yes, look at the increase of bankruptcy’s. These tariffs are political and not based on economic reasoning.

To answer your question, China lends us money and we are partners in some form or fashion. Some good and some bad.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

Gio, the mess we`re in happened over 30yrs  (75 yrs in the making actually https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brettonwoodsagreement.asp )  so it isn`t going to be solved in the measurement of months.  As example a North Carolina textile worker out of a living wage job because their textile mill moved to China, had to take a part time job at McDonalds and instead of making a living wage, now doesn`t pay income tax and collects from the generous US entitlement programs.   I`m puzzled how some of you normally sharp marketers can not see this cost shifting onto the US taxpayer?

 

It`s like the old Fram oil filter commercial about "pay a little now changing oil or pay a lot more later for a new engine". 

 

I don`t mind paying more for Chinese made Walmart junk...I try to buy the higher quality American made products where I can and if China junk is higher that`s all the more incentive to not buy junk.   I don`t think tariffs have directly affected Walmart and Harbor Freight yet, but that is a good thing, that tariff money will go into the US Treasury much from people that are in the half of the country that doesn`t ordinarily pay "taxes"...time they start sharing my burden.  

 

We have record low unemployment, record high labor participation rate, record stock market, average wage is finally over $27/hr.  Dems talk about "$15/hr min wage", they are behind the times, you can`t hire someone to shine your shoes for $15/hr.  

 

It probably isn`t politically popular to say (but I`m not a politician) but I wouldn`t mind permanent tariffs against non-cooperating countries, because it raises our revenues and hurts our enemies. That money that goes into the public coffers can be used to help industries that`s harmed by the "trade war" such as giving soybean growers a payment.   With the trade deficits we run are dollars ahead doing that ....but I know I know then our facade of market oriented agriculture comes crashing down.   Which to be honest was a hoax, because to peddle one dollar of ag commodities we had to buy $10 or whatever of their i-Phones and Walmart junk....not "market oriented" if you really want to be honest. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

BA,

 

From your perspective, there is a lot of good from this tariff war.  From my perspective and speaking just the ag market, there is a lot of bad.  But, considering you are in the ag market why is it not affecting you like it has others? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

Hey Gio, it affects me, however, I am diversified with livestock, own my land, low debt and outside income.  Now if I thought $13 beans was my birthright, I suppose I`d see things as `my country or my farm...those are my only choices".  But with China demanding we buy $10 to every $1 they buy from us can`t go on or they will eventually own us.   If it didn`t come to a head in 2019, it`d come in 2029 and it`d be too late and we`d be learning Mandarin.  

 

If we follow through and not change horses in the middle of the creek, it will be very good for farmers, because raw ag products are the only thing they buy from us and the only bargaining chip...it`s not like they could make a deal and buy I-Phones and Levis from us.  

 

But yeah, farmers need to get that goofy idea they "are in the freeee market"....yeah on the backs of millions of factoryworkers, we sold our soybeans, factoryworkers went to the cross for usand our free market pipe dream. That`s why the sooner we get honest with ourselves and say "we need a corn and soybean payment which can be funded out of the tariff revenue"  the better off we will be. 

 

But I don`t think anyone can truthfully say "corn`d be $4 and beans`d be $10 if not for Trump and his tweeting!"  no, there`s ample supply around the world, $8 corn and $13 beans had a loooong tail.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

BA,
I think your confusing demand with buying power. US consumers can buy ten times more than a Chinese consumer. The problem is that we buy things we don’t need. Chinese consumer only buy the things that will get them by.

Outside income? You a Doctor on the side? Dr. BA, not bad.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

With  less  than  2%  of  U S A  folks  stir-ing  dirt ,  it's  a  numbers  game  on  election  day ,  along  with  a  poker  bluff  move ,  pretend-ism  -   -   -

 

Rural  markets  are  a  cheap  whipping  mule,  while  the  markets  tank,  not  that  much  political  clout  is  on  the  wager  table,  with  whispers  behind  closed  doors  being  ''  sorry  about  your  luck ''  talk  -  -  -

 

As  rural  numbers  dwindle,  get  used  to  more  of  the  same,   while  the  4th  July  parades  in  farm  country  do  likewise  -  -  -   

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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

Well, if China wants us to buy cheap plastic junk that we used to make ourselves and really don`t need, they`d better buy all their "needs" from us or they can pound sand.  To put things in perspective if they bought every bean that we raised for +$10 it`d be $40 billion, they run a $400 billion trade surplus with us.   The fact that they even look at a South American bean is highly offensive!  What is it about "not pissing off your best customer"?   They run a $400 billion trade surplus with any other country in the world?  

 

They prop up little rocketman in North Korea,they used a red herring of not buying Duracade grain, now they own Syngenta, they duzzled around about Ractopamine pork and now they own Smithfield.  Why have we trained China to use us as a doormat? 

 

And about "using farmers as a whipping boy" there`s a farm down the road from me (not as good as mine  Smiley Happy  ) that rented this spring for $330/acre.   They guys that rented it have new paint and though I don`t know, I doubt they`re on social media crying in their soup, they work hard and take calculated risks.  Perhaps we need learn what successful people do and emulate that. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Corn Planters Need A Raincoat

BA I agree 100% with your posts.  I said a long time ago that 10 dollar beans and 8 dollar corn would be our down fall.

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