cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Corn Warrior national trend estimate

I went over to the AgPhD Field Day Dave, Hula, Kevin Kalb, Brooks Cardinal, Dan Luepkes gave talks.  I`ll just speak generally without assigning direct quotes to any of them, but they don`t think the USDA above trend is there,  One drove through Illinois on the way to Baltic, SD and thought "Champaign county Illinois didn`t look as good as they had expected"  They pulled some ears and 12`s and 14`s around, not conducive to the above expectation yields.  These aren`t run of the mill farmers, they know what they are looking at.  So, take that for what it`s worth.   

Bill Graff on the other hand did find a "garden spot" in Illinois in his and Judy`s crop tour.

A Bayer rep commented on the South Dakota crop that "looks good", he said it was rolled tight in June and they did get some rain and it unfurled and now "looks good".

I pulled a Pioneer 106 day ear 16x45, but look at the pollination uneveness  and not plump kernels for the lack of better description.

0 Kudos
8 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Warrior national trend estimate

0 Kudos
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Warrior national trend estimate

BA: if enough ears, that could still be a 225 bu crop, or a 150 bu crop, depending on tip back, which based upon the issues you note is most likely to be pretty severe. It really needs moist soil and highs in the low 80's. That is the weather that IL and some of the east are getting for a few days anyway. Not sure about where this was taken.

Bottom line is that it is still too early to tell the outcome. jmo

0 Kudos
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Warrior national trend estimate

Well, it appears that the early results from Brazil means that the Ukraine and the U. S. will be the only places exporting corn. 
We had better hope for a trend line yield here in the U.S. Otherwise we may see corn prices higher than anyone has ever seen. 

0 Kudos
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn Warrior national trend estimate

Say 170 bu  off 85 mill harvested might be possible. 

Is that close enough for trend? LoL

Might be closer to 83 mill harvested too.  At 165 by..  Still a great crop. 

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn Warrior national trend estimate

Darin Hefty was saying since winter Olympics are gonna be in China, they could shut down chemical plants to clear the air, so it might be used as an excuse to raise prices like last time.   I looked at a G-barn by Worthington and snapped this picture of corn that looks "good" going 70 on I-90, but off on gravel road a truer picture.  I didn`t pull any ears, I don`t like snooping or stealing in other people`s fields, even though a ear is worth a penny...still.  I probably do get too caught up in kernel counting, but I`m old school enough to believe it`s hard to achieve top yields with less than 600 kernels on a ear. 

 I could`ve took my picture 50 feet to the left and it was spiked and 3/4ths to size of plants shown, this is actually cherrypicked to show the best snippet of the field.

0 Kudos
skarr9
Senior Reader

Re: Corn Warrior national trend estimate

But is a national 170 bpa still a "good" crop for 2021? It might have to be "good enough" for this year and look forward to 2022. Also, its still a bit early to tell for sure but it doesn't seem like 50 bpa nationally of beans is likely this year. I'm thinking today its more like 47 or 48 bpa instead. We'll see.

0 Kudos
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

45 bu beans nationally

Would be a pretty decent total bean crop. 

Be interesting what they do. 

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: 45 bu beans nationally

On USFR they were saying anything less than 176 on corn and 49 on beans will be fireworks.   As I understand 176 would the actual "trend yield", just USDA was ambitious going 3 bu over on estimate, but this lull has given endusers a gift horse.

FWITW while mowing lawn walnuts have fallen, July albeit the last day or so of the month seems early for dropping.  The walnuts have thinner shells than normal and very small. 

With beans, I chuckle at Kevin Kalb talking about his beans get 6 foot on corn contest acres (a little much for his red combine) pods a foot a part and yield 35.  He said all he did was plant early first part of April and he added 40 bu to his yield just by the single factor.  Thing is many of us "planted late" in that the cold May in Iowa and Minnesota held back emergence and growth, so the guy that planted May 20th was just as well off....perhaps better? 

0 Kudos