cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Corn/beans up 4 & 9

Brazil dry and mild food rationing in China.

0 Kudos
2 Replies
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Brazil dry? Too early to say.

Brazil is just coming out of their dry season, the rains don't normally start until sometime in Oct.  As of 10/8 El Nino indices are negative. It's a little too early to get too excited about Brazil.

  On the other hand, the US drought map is getting worrisome.  We're going into the fall dry, some places quite dry.  Remember, the drought of 2012 started in 2011.  If you want to worry about drought, worry about here.

  As for China, if the Chinese are already rationing food, they know they've got a problem and are getting started early on handing it which means in the end, it probably won't be a problem.  They are buying corn here far cheaper than they can grow it themselves, so why should they worry.

  Besides, the US monthly trade deficit hit a record high of $67.1 billion in Aug.  Our real goods trade deficit hit $92 billion, off the charts.

SA 7 day anomaly.gif
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Brazil dry? Too early to say.

Actually, a LaNina is settling in SOI +8.0 which could impact Argy and southern Brazil and their second crop corn,  And of course the US, this year we came into spring with a full charge of moisture, spring of 2021 might not be the case setting up another "2012".  

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog-post/2020/10/05/la-nina-settles...

But China does an even worse job of storing grain than I do Smiley Happy , but to store corn over 5 years, you gotta really know what you`re doing.  I just think a lotta chickens are coming home to roost. 

But with the trade deficit going up, that is fine now that the US Treasury is getting a "sin tax" off of it.  With Covid and people at home, "point & click" buying foreign junk as the US factories aren`t yet up to production.  Like with higher cigarette taxes being good to off set the smoking`s increased health costs, tariffs off set the increased costs of US underemployed workers. 

0 Kudos