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Senior Contributor

Corn bottom?

Good morning, everybody. Well, we had a few of the spammin' jerks in here this morning, but got them wiped out pretty quickly. Thanks again for bearing with us, and for all your patience and help! You're helping me keep this place up and runnin'!

 

Speaking of running, is corn off and running since Friday's reports? Ray Grabanski writes this morning that he thinks corn may have hit its bottom Friday. What say you? Is he right or wrong?

 

Here's Ray...

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7 Replies
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Senior Contributor

Re: Corn bottom?

 Don't know, but hope he's right.  Patrick

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Corn bottom?

I would think that it would build a floor for the market but as far as off and running I do not think that is going to happen.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Corn bottom?

I'm actually working on a story right now (I'll post here when I get it whupped) with an update on conditions in South America. Sounds like soybean harvest is underway in key areas of Brazil, but there are some growing concerns about hot, dry weather in Argentina, where the corn's pollinating. Do you think the market will pay much attention to that latter storyline and add a little more for the corn bulls? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn bottom?

agree with riverland,

 

eating analogy.   end users have supply and are not hungry.  They are being offered some more after  the friday jump with basis getting it close to $5.  They see food on the table and some willingness to pass it.  They filled a big portion of the plate at harvest and have reserves.  We even saw basis slip a bit -- 5cents.

 

That v word is hard to say for now.  But the market is showing some life.  I am with Riverland,  we build bottom support and work higher in to insurance setting time and gradually higher into summer with possible 5 numbers by then.  We need beans to make the run for acres.  Up until now corn was trying to give acres away.  We need beans to show they need the acres.  

I don't think the market has shown the realities of usage so far. IMO

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Senior Contributor

Re: Corn bottom?

I sure hope this put a bottom in Jeff.  As for off to the races I am skeptical.  Not sure that is what we want at this time anyway.  If we see a big move up in corn we plant more corn acres and inputs stay where they are or move even higher.  A period of boring markets now thru April would not be a bad thing in my opinion.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Corn bottom?

Steve, that certainly sounds like what traders were saying after Friday's reports. Jason Roose at U.S. Commodities told me Friday that we should get accustomed to the "big moves" comprising something more like 10 cents than the 50-cent swings we've grown accustomed to in the last couple years. You sure may be onto something!

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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn bottom?

Volatility is an expression of resistance.  It is the one thing that told what a mess we were in  11 & 12.  

May have represented supply/ demand better than price.

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