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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Corn demand III

Some relevant comments from the last post have resulted in the following adjusted corn demand plot.

corn demand adj.jpg

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11 Replies
nwobcw
Advisor

Re: Corn demand III

    This chart seems to prove the increased corn price with the expansion of ethanol.

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: Corn demand III

For a second there I thought your chart actually showed some current demand destruction but quckly realized this year  still has a few more months to go.

 

Thanks for making the changes. Where did you finally locate the DDG numbers?

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sonoma72
Veteran Contributor

Re: Corn demand III

with the addition of the ddg's to your chart, I assume your numbers are correct, it looks to me like demand is static outside ethanol.  There are minor fluctuations, of course.    Which makes the price outcome pretty scary if etol support fails. 

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: Corn demand III

You saw it right the first time. USDA is projecting demand decrease for 2011/12 of 100M bushels off of export corn.

 

I made the same mistake when I first looked at these reports thinking it was a running tab, but they are actually projecting stocks on some future date, namely Sept 1.

 

This also goes to the argument about "running out" of corn. The current report says there will be 730M bushels left on Sept 1 2011. Therefore, there must be much more than that around now to marketeye's point from some days ago.

 

Re: DDGS numbers, they actually call out the "Ethanol & by-products" usage, I took 33% of that to be DDGS. I have also seen 17lbs per bushel, either way its close

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NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: Corn demand III

sonoma

 

to your point, this plot shows it better

 

corn demand adj2.jpg

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sonoma72
Veteran Contributor

Re: Corn demand III

I must say these charts are cool, maybe that is why I like USA Today Smiley Happy  I would be interested to see a Distillers Grain price chart, as compared to corn prices, meaning are ddgs "cheaper" feed than grain corn?   Especially given how large of a percentage ddgs have become of the feed market.   I have no idea, I don't follow the ddg market.  Also what about wet distiller grain, where is that figured into. 

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: Corn demand III

sonoma - DDG's are "cheaper" but the have also been stripped of some of the necessary nutrients. I don't do any feeding but from what I know this is a bigger problem for dairy operations when using DDGs. In any case the DDGs don't fully provide the same protien content as corn itself and some adjustments to the feed mix are necessary.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn demand III

DDG's have almost 3 times the protein content of raw corn

 

energy concentration may be slightly less than corn since the starch was removed to make the ethanol

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sonoma72
Veteran Contributor

Re: Corn demand III

Perhaps ethanol is, the slippery eel.  Why is it there is no consensus on the rate of return on corn for ethanol, no consensus on the feed value of ddgs, apparently no consensus on the replacement value of feed of ddgs and the list goes on.  A % multiplied many times over can equal a rather large error.   I don't see how we ever move forward unless we have "concrete" numbers.  

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