Here is the source which I read occasionally when I can get to their material
CEPEA----Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics
University of Sao Paulo
Piracicaba, Brazil
CORN / CEPEA: With lower supply, indicator reaches R $ 50, 01 / sc
Cepea, 9 - Domestic corn values follow up. On Friday, 6, the indicator ESALQ / BM & FBovespa (Campinas-SP base) reached R $ 50, 01 / bag of 60 kg, the highest level nomin al entire Cepea series started in 2004. Already in real terms the partial middle of May, R $ 49.55 / sc is the largest des d and January 2008 (figures updated by the IGP-DI April / 16). according to Cepea data (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), d Esalq / USP, n Paraná, where the competition for grain is fierce, some businesses are already made R $ 52 / sc.
The impetus comes from the lower supply. According to researchers from Cepea, the harvest of summer crops is in the final straight, but many producers are retracted, only trading off lots. These vendors are concerned about the development of the second crop cereal. Despite the rains in many producing regions in late April, it was small relief to crops - the situation is considered critical in some cases and speculações indicate that productivity can be one of the smallest of the last seasons.. Meanwhile, demand continues strong.
New official figures show lower productivity in corn crops. After Deral / Seab release in late April decline of 6% in the productivity of Paraná compared to the previous harvest, the IMEA indicated, n early May, possible reduction 16.5% in Mato Grosso, with the yield on the home of 91 sc / ha. Despite the increase in the area in key regions, lower productivity can result in considerable drop in the second crop production.
In this scenario, Brazil has already importing small quantities of maize, especially from neighboring countries. According to Secex, 105,900 tons were imported in April, the average price of US $ 155.4 / ton, which is equivalent to R $ 33.13 / sc 60 kg, well below the current prices in the national physical . As for exports, were only 370,500 tons of corn shipped in April, priced at US $ 178.2 / tonne, or R $ 37.98 / sc, also lower than verified in the Brazilian regions.
In April, the average value of the first contract open at BM & FBovespa was 52% higher than the first contract d the Chicago Board of Trade (CME / CBOT). The average April corn in the port of Paranaguá (PR) was 37% above the first contract of CBOT / CME and 17% higher than the value of exports from Argentina. Despite the great fear for the development of crops of second crop corn, the lower competitiveness of the Brazilian grain can result in falls internal and / or at least should limit new high in the medium term.
Piracicaba, May 9, 201 6
