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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Corn in the bin, not a sin

Says Shawn Hackett on Market Plus. And "don`t mess with puts", Tom Pfitzenmeier`s  (Mr Buyaput) ears must be burnin`  Smiley Happy   

Shawn is cautious about China carrying through with the 25% OVER purchase agreement on Phase One.  But buying BEFORE November 3rd only helps the US presidential candidate that they did not endorse...wouldn`t it make more sense to fulfill Phase One after the election?   So, I think China is desperate and the 125% of Phase One is the real deal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smiJB_vVDGE

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8 Replies
rsbs
Advisor

Re: Corn in the bin, not a sin

Hopefully we return to $10 soybeans and $4 corn. With all the money being created by the stimulus bills, maybe we need $5 corn and $12 beans now.

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bruce MN
Advisor

Re: Corn in the bin, not a sin

Sliver of bassakwards truth in that. 2 different Ag loan officers have told me that their clients are supporting Dennison for the solitary reason that they fear, or better, hold uncertainty that the stimulus they have been benefiting from might dry up or deplete with a change.

Nothing more than the usual ages old gripes about prices, nor trade. 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn in the bin, not a sin

Has Biden even mentioned farmers?  Oh yeah yeah yeah "he supports the RFS!!!", talk is cheap and whisky costs money.   I bought some gas the other day, $1.84.  I don`t know the ethanol economics all that well, but can they grind say $5 corn for a product that competes with a fossil fuel product that may seldom get over $2 again?  If we are afraid to look at what`s coming down the pipe, we might be "on the wrong side of history" to use a liberal phrase.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/08/25/self-charging-thousand-year-battery-startup-ndb-aces-key-tests-and...

snip:

NDB’s innovation is in creating a new, proprietary nano diamond treatment that allows for more efficient extraction of electric charge from the diamond used in the creation of the battery. Their goal is to ultimately commercialize a version of their battery that can self-charge for up to a maximum lifespan of 28,000 years, created from artificial diamond-encased carbon-14 nuclear waste.

This battery doesn’t generate any carbon emissions in operation, and only requires access to open air to work. And while they’re technically batteries, because they contain a charge which will eventually be expended, they provide their own charge for much longer than the lifetime of any specific device or individual user, making them effectively a charge-free solution.

 

NDB ultimately hopes to turn their battery into a viable source of power for just about anything that consumes it — including aircraft, EVs, trains and more, all the way down to smartphones, wearables and tiny industrial sensors. The company is currently now at work creating a prototype of its first commercial battery in order to make that available sometime later this year.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn in the bin, not a sin

For 3 decades i`ve supported a get tough on China stance and i`m not a "tariffphobe" to achieve fair trade.  I had a sliver of common ground with Democrats on trade issues up until 2016, then they magically discovered "Adam Smith" ...wonder why  Smiley Happy  

Politicians would promise "oh yeah, git me elected and i`ll look into this trade deficit"  then it got put on the backburner until the "next election".   By Trump being proactive, having tariffs in place, collecting tariff revenue and showing he isn`t afraid to go teat for tat on more tariffs. 

Now we have China by the short hairs, they`ve had a run of bad luck and we have leverage, most administrations would pacify farmers and labor saying "well China is buying now...what more do you want, you`re welcome!".  3 decades of that hasn`t solved the trade imbalance, so when we go back to a greater supply/demand environment,  there isn`t trade deals with teeth on the books.

If Joe wants to tear up progress made in trade for a short term pop in $5 Walmart shirts in exchange for China buying all the $8 beans we can raise, thanks but no thanks.

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tgsherer
Friend

Re: Corn in the bin, not a sin

'rsbs', Your sights are set too low. Break-even for Corn is ~$4.50 and for Beans ~$10.60! (may leave a penny or so towards Profit.)

Unless all of your equipment is paid-off , your work and Money are subsidizing the World, esp China.

$5.25 Corn and $12 Beans begins to turn a comfortable, livable Profit.

During this idiotic Tariff War, China has invested heavily in building up F-2-M roads & Ports Infrastructure in SA - and Nicaragua? (a new Canal?) - to ensure they can get SA Corn & Beans at lowest price.  And the US has been subsidizing China's investment thru the Tariff War!

In current Ag purchase deal, China is buying at Bargain Basement Prices - >$1.25/bu below the prices Corn & Beans were going for the day before the Tariff War began. With a 2 yr supply of grain on-hand, we are stuck with Losing $$ until SA has a drought or pestilence - or 2.

In Vegas the saying is 'don't bet against the house'. Here, we've had the house bet against us!

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn in the bin, not a sin

As soon as the ships off loaded in China, 125% of the Phase One agreement, then traders will step up prices (law of supply & demand hasn`t been repealed) . But this "we gonna buy!" then a few days later "we changed our minds, cancel the order!" then prices go down.  Don`t let `em get away with that crap, tell `em to put 50% down in earnest money or don`t waste our time!   Why don`t we ever cancel orders of Walmart junk coming in from China?

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tgsherer
Friend

Re: Corn in the bin, not a sin

Why? Because we're Capitalists. And China is Opportunist. 

But, one would think Dealers would get tired of Order/Cancel merry-go-round.

125% target will not put a dent in our On-Hand - Until last few weeks they've bought Nothing from us for 2+ years. They filled their needs from Argentina, Brazil, and Russia.

IF China does complete the "agreement", they will then dump / off-load the less than Quality stuff to some 3rd World Nation (and we are sending them a lot of Sub-Standard mixed into with the Good).

At the Price they are paying, they could practically Give it away to make themselves look like Super Heros. 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn in the bin, not a sin

I googled who buys corn from China in all sorts of different ways, but the amount must be so inconsequential that all that popped up was news about the US selling corn TO China.   As I understand it, the CCP has auctions and the rotten corn is probably bought domestically and blended with quality US corn.  I`m sure some ends up in North Korea too.  

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