Corn market

[marketeye]

FutureRoad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit trader, Tom White, offers these thoughts for next week's market.

"The market grinded higher last week which was consistent with our discussion of a possible trend line break on the dailies.  While momentum indicators have not been convincing to the long side, we must respect the long side of the market for now. "

Mike

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

So, the fundamental guys say we have too much corn and the technical guys say, "who cares, the trend is up".  They may be both right, but not at the same time.  How's your timing?

[Hobbyfarmer]

kind of hard to answer the timing question

It would just be a guess

[NDf]

I'd say the fundamentals could be changeing with strong demand from the export market and high meat prices.

[Hobbyfarmer]

NO NO NO, demand was killed, and was dead and buried.

[c-x-1]

shhh that's correct, demand is gone

[Hobbyfarmer]

Hope we get decent news as I need to core the corn bins shortly.

[c-x-1]

from the horse's mouth--

When i spoke with Kieth Menzie (over the telephone) at WASDE last Nov - he's the head guy who figures out ending stocks figure on each report...he assured me, and i quote, "THERE IS NO SUCH LANGUAGE AS {Minimum pipeline level}" that they cannot go below or (have) to maintain - his job is to plug in the #'s he gets from USDA and figure ( ECIN) as accurately as he can .

he wasn't even defensive about it....just plainly said that he supposed that is a myth the market has made up over the years and had never even heard that story .

[wglassfo]

I wonder who keeps an eye on USDA

They must have some idea of what WASDE numbers will be, when plugged in," or just doing his job, with the numbers he gets"

I doubt USDA folks are that stupid, not to think about what would happen, if they give WASDE this or that numbers

I don't know if the report will answer any questions about WASDE/USDA or not

WASDE is the bean counter and spits out the numbers

Seems like USDA is the elephant in the room that can make things happen

I always do a trial estimate or 3, when I want to borrow money, at the bank

Especially for land that is priced too high

I use what works best for me and go to the bank, assuming I am close to what will work 

I have no idea what the banker does with those numbers, but I can make a decent guess

Doesn't this sound sort of like the same thing??

Even though banker gets the numbers after I have done them, I have a good idea of what the bottom line will be

[c-x-1]

my humble opinion is that "somehow or in some way" the balance sheets have gotton a hold over the USDA/WASDE's cay-hone-EEs???

....sounds to me they have relied too heavily on probability and statistics and the infamous STANDARD DEVIATION is gettin' wider every year.

.....in order to lick this issue, they need to somehow do more ACTUAL bean or corn counting - but this takes more money and this gov't just doesn't see the value.