Corn to dethrone soybeans this year in Brazil, govt says

[luisvieira]

The second corn crop of the year in Brazil is expected to be extremely good. It would total 67.0 million tons of corn crop in 2011/12, in the South American country. The estimates come from the National Supply Company, which is a subdivision of Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture. Do you guys buy that? That's the second institution saying this. Prior to that, some consultancies already had these projections.

[luisvieira]

I was going to say extremely... good. The soybean crop is expected to be 65 million tons.

[marketeye]

luisvieria,

So, Brazil will produce more corn vs. soybeans this year. That is shocking. Well kind of. Just this week, the USDA estimated Brazil's 2011-12 corn production at 69.0 mmt. So, how many acres of corn is that? How much of that corn will be fed domestically and how much will be exported?

Thanks,

Mike

[luisvieira]

Usually Brazil exports around 15 percent of the total corn production. The projections for this year say that nearly 11 million tons of corn would be exported. The remaining would be sold domestically. Brazilian farmers planted corn in nearly 121,081,636 acres.

[viperkev]

I believe it completely. When prices are as good as they have been in a country that has the capability they will grow it. Also even though the weather was too dry for soybeans it turned much more conducive for second crop corn. The  saying "low prices cure low prices and high prices cure high prices" . Farmers are their own worst enemy and greed always comes through.

Kevin

[roarintiger1]

I certainly wouldn't call it greed......just good business sense.

[viperkev]

It's just that it only takes a fairly small amount of carryover to trash the prices and drive them below cost of production. I would rather have the good prices of the last couple years. That's why I said it was greed. I don't agree it's good business sense driving prices below that cost of production. That will happen if we end up with a 1.8 billion carryout in corn.

Kevin

[sw363535]

I am still struggling with the concept of being too dry for soybeans and wet enough for double crop corn in the same season.

does brazil have an 11 month growing season?

[sw363535]

And have they really changed to monsoon conditions.   The weather forcasts have not shown that 

[luisvieira]

sw,

The thing is that soybeans and corn in Brazil are harvested in different times. Also, the January drought happened in Southern Brazil, which is now concentrating most of the soybean production. Corn is now being mostly planted in the state of Mato Grosso, in the center-western part of the country(check the map). Mato Grosso now accounts for 20 percent of corn production here.

Brazil has two crops of corn. The second corn crop, here called "safrinha" (little crop), is harvested from May to August (depending on the region).