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Veteran Advisor

Corn vs. beans, We're at the point where we need to ....

We're at the point where we need to decide, keep planting corn, or switch to beans?  To tell you honestly, unless those fellows in the Upper Midwest can sell at least some beans to Asia the demand for beans here will be almost non-existent.  On the other hand,  it seems that I can at least sell corn here even if I don't like the price.

  Meanwhile, the prospects for some ethanol production are improving, not looking great but better.   In contrast, the way trump is "badmouthing" China and talking about throwing over his trade deal, I doubt very much if China will have any real incentive to buy beans this fall.

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Veteran Advisor

Perhaps just

Stay W Your normal rotation. 

Beans will end 2020 a lot higher priced than now. 

Say $11++.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: $11-plus, with a 500 M bu carryout?

$11-plus, with a 580 M bu carryout?  Unless there's a drought, not much chance of that.

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Senior Advisor

Re: $11-plus, with a 500 M bu carryout?

I never had a lot of luck juggling rotations. Even if the market assumptions didn't change and make me wrong, weather often did.

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Honored Advisor

Re: $11-plus, with a 500 M bu carryout?

As a Iowegian, I can point my bat at the upperdeck and get a 200+bu yield ball at least into the crowd, on a good year I`ll get 45 or 75 bushel beans...consistently inconsistent, favoring corn year in and year out.  I know, when I`m combining, what crop will be there next year, if I`m harvesting beans, it`ll be corn next year CBOT futures no effects on the decision. And that`s the way with most neighbors, some larger operations are nearly continuous corn...more gross dollars to sneak in a profit.

This year, pre Covid, it was all "yer nuts planting corn! markets favor beans!" and I thought oh well, screwed again, because this is my heavier corn year.  But now, corn is back in favor again...or is it? I can`t keep up with these acreage battles   Smiley Happy

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Senior Contributor

Re: $11-plus, with a 500 M bu carryout?

Planted corn this year as the Cash crop......enough big dairies around here usually looking for feed....either grain or silage and they do the harvest.....a big plus for me and no trucking to dryer ....no corn drying expense,

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Frequent Reader

Re: Corn vs. beans, We're at the point where we need to ....

 I was wondering about summer fallowing more with an oats cover plowdown and then putting in wheat.  Corn is expensive to grow and with the ethanol falloff I don't know.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn vs. beans, We're at the point where we need to ....

here is a depressing thought...

Out Here we are leaning back to corn...... very much so...

Based solely on "it is the crop that we can sell and not get stuck with"  --- meaning we have more than one buyer within 25o miles.  When it is 30 cents freight for 200+ miles and the local coop has a -$1.50 basis below our one ks market...  That says "don't bring them here".

We will ablige.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Corn vs. beans, We're at the point where we need to ....

The demand for soybeans is not going away. It’s just a matter of where they are needed and can you get them there.

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