Corn yield projection

[c-x-1]

interesting to ponder what numerous research studies reveal about yield potential or loss for late planted corn ON AVERAGE = 8% loss after May 10 and 15% loss after May 20.

 as we all know weather conditions in and around pollination and directly afterwards affects yield much more absolutely----but to begin late doesn't increase the odds for stellar potential, either.

----based on the expert opinions of how much Corn gets in this week per cmegroup commentary = 60% by Sunday.

----this implys we start the growing season minus 14bpa. of potential.....so, depending on whether you think trendline potential is 170bpa or 150bpa minus 14bpa minus what doesn't get planted....should be an interesting "growing season."

***This is assuming it ALL gets in by June 1

[Blacksandfarmer]

C-X-1 IMO I don't believe corn yield will suffer THAT much by planting the 15th of May. The average yield in the heart of the cornbelt should be OK with average weather. The concern should be the acres planted. I really don't believe we will plant 97 million acres of corn this year. If I was a farmer in northern Minnesota or North Dakota getting this late of a start and watching corn prices slide, I might change plans to plant a few more acres of beans. My guess is that 94 million acres of corn will be planted with an average yield of 156..... I don't even like to guess yield at this point but my #s make more sense than the phony #s USDA comes out with. 

Im 100% done planting both corn and beans here. Most of my neighbors are about 90% planted, both corn and beans. (Michigan/Indiana line)

[c-x-1]

you'd know better than i would.......was just going off the studies that say these reductions based on planting date.

Yes, i agree, anything is better than USDA #'s.

thanks 

actually, cyclonegrain, these are all pretty bearish #'s being put around........

[roarintiger1]

I really don't have a prediction/projection of the corn yield or corn acres for that matter.  But I will say that it is very likely that the entire U.S. corn crop will come in at something less than 13 billion bushels.

[Kstater85]

To get to a crop lower than 13B you would have to assume a yield lower than 147.

[roarintiger1]

Or less acres......

[CitiFarmer]

History says that the delayed planting may cause 2 to 3 million less acres of corn to go in the ground and usually causes a 5-15% drop in the national average yield vs. trend probably due to the shift to shorter season varieties and/or more production issues from hot weather.  Using a 163 trend (close to USDA's figure) and reducing it 7.5% to 150.0 means planted acres would need to fall to 93.6 million (down 3.7 million) to see a 13.0 billion production level assuming a 92.6% harvested level.

This is not out of the question when looking at the forecast for ND (18% planted 5-12), eastern SD (37%) and MN (18%) which are shown by USDA at a combined total of 18.450 million corn acres in 2013 in the March 28th Prospective Acres report that showed the 97.3 million  acres. A drop of 3.7 million represents a 20% drop in acres for these states and we may have seen fewer southern acres planted due to excessive moisture. IA is also an area where reduced acres are possible. 

Time will tell the story with the weather this weekend possibly holding the key.

Take care everyone.

If I knew for sure, I would not be working for a living. 

[cyclonegrain]

I realize that anything not bullish is not welcome on this site, but the facts do not support ALL of what is being "hoped" for.

Since 1980 we have had 6 years where we had 15% or less of the corn planted on April 28th (1983, 84, 93, 95, 2001,and 2013).  Now, we don't know where final planted acreage will end up for 2013 and we may as well throw out the 1983 flood year which was by far the worst spring for lost acreage and using the 84, 93, 95, and 2001 slow pace and we lost on average 2.175 million planted acres of corn.  In the other slow planting pace years of 80, 81, 92, (2008 we were slow, but ended up unchanged) we added 800,000 acres to the final number on average. 

In my VERY humble I do not think we will lose a big number of acres. Every attempt will be made to plant corn if for no other reason than for insurance.  An insured corn acre worth more than a an insured bean acre. 

For next Monday my guess is 75% percent or higher on corn planting and 30% on beans.  If we don't have a monster weather issue we are going down. 

The markets are run by professionals and financed by amateurs!

[c-x-1]

cyclonegrain,

I was wondering what the insurance dates for Corn were - and if they are different per region, etc. do you know?

Also, so you're thinking the weather premium is already in the market?

thanks for your thoughts,

c-x-1 

[Shaggy98]

I'm predicting my yields to be between 225-250 B/A, but I've been wrong before.  Trying to get practiced up in case I want to apply for a USDA job.