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Veteran Advisor

Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

Here's a report from the University of Illinois with something for everyone.  It says the correlation between crop condition reports and yield projections this year is pretty wide, but within the range of error so there is no bases to assume bias.

 

No matter what your personal prejudice, you'll be happy with the report.  Of course, it's essentially useless, because it doesn't inform anyone's marketing planning.

 

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/11/should-we-be-surprised-about-us-average-yield.html?utm_sour...

 

"Implications

Once again, USDA crop condition ratings and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in 2017 have been controversial. Some market observers and analysts have argued that the condition ratings and yield estimates contradicted one another, with crop condition ratings too low and/or yield estimates too high. We examined crop condition ratings relative to yield and weather observations for 2017 and find little evidence that would support the perception that USDA condition ratings and yield estimates were biased in any direction. Instead, corn and soybean yield projections based on crop condition ratings were within standard error ranges and weather observations for the U.S. Corn Belt were near normal with the exception of a beneficially cool August. The real lesson from 2017 is the uncomfortable degree of uncertainty in corn and soybean yield forecasts made during the growing season."

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9 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

If the range is wide there is plenty of room for bias?

 

We should be concerned with our dependence on forecasting at usda.  What does that tell us?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

"within standard error ranges"

 

It's either an error or, it isn't.  There are no ranges in real life.  If there is any kind of "range", bias can and does certainly happen.

 

If this was baseball, it would be either a hit or an error.    These USDA numbers are no hit.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

A) Crop ratings were never meant to be used for yield forecasting, we and the entire industry make that mistake every year. Although this year is certainly an outlier and I think their stardard deviations allow for anything to be "close enough".

B) The final yield for beans is certainly not a known, corn either all though it might go up due to the cool temps and then the bizarrely late freeze. Our June 2nd corn made it all the way to complete maturity before the freeze this week. Amazing, easily added 25 bu/ac to it.

 

ps, highest yields are from planting dates of 5/20 to 5/24, the April stuff is far less. Once again, planting early is NOT always the right thing to do...  :-)

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Senior Contributor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

No sh$$ because of soil temps which most of us stressed highly during the early planting season. This was the month of April also the very same as when market analysis and the USDA started this whole charade. Didn’t stop anyone from sending the market south, worse yet neither did the so called Weather Market. Now your only telling us what we already knew and said repeatedly for 5 months. Noticed the market correction (sarcasm). It’s funny when so many people continue to spout the same rhetoric everyone else almost start to believe it. Anything for a quick buck survival mode in action.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

Statistics, unfortunately for this forum, does deal with ranges.  In fact, statistics is all about probabilities and ranges and nothing else.  Wishing it isn't so doesn't change it.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

Noone doubts that jim,  but whose statistics is the issue..... and whose ranges...... For the last three months the export expectation ranges have been so large anyone from 8 to 80 could have worn the outfit.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

They said they compared crop conditions vs yeild.

Newsflash......harvest is not over

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

Yep, comparing to Oct 1 estimated projections is kind of meaningless.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Crop Conditions And USDA Yield Projections

Time

 

A) total BS................. Crop ratings have the sole purpose of trying to predict outcome in terms of yield.............. what other term of measuring the crop is there.... We could sure save a lot of money in ticket printing and scales if we could drive up and sell our great crop  and price it as a great crop by the acre based on its judged condition ---like tobacco................. "USDA said it was best ever".  That's great Bill, here's your blue ribbon.  Dump it over in that ground pile.  I'll get a call in to the area fsa office and see if we can you a check for you effort....... we got too much of that worthless stuff.

We are talking about a process that is supposed to help with federal budgeting...... NASS statistics.....  disconneted from reality so we can celebrate success every year and pat the statisticians on the back without a concern for accuracy.  Just another taxpayer rape..  Fullfilling 0 purpose in terms of economic outcome.

 

B)  the final yield for beans will be whatever usda says it is.  If you doubt that just ask them.  That is what we talk about or are directed to talk about by those with the know in "marketing" circles.

 

I start shaking my head when one of us ----- or most of us......... start trying to correlate our personal actual, accross the scales yield results with the hocus pocus shell game you refer to, carried out by federal employees who claim to raise a crop every year in an ever increasing success story.

Those clowns never sell a bushel or load a ship. 

Marketing is selling what you produced......... widgets to soybeans........ that is marketing........ something usda never does........ Yet their press releases are all we talk about here in the "run on, repost, nostalgia format.

 

If a producer who actually markets discusses real marketing.... it can't mean anything to the rest of us...... after all he has been doing it for decades and what does he know?

 

Real corn yields will probably be shifted to the Crop forum if reported by a producer..... so here goes........Corn ....Irrigated yields at 201 average over our area.... that is 30 bushel below last year and normal expectations.   Irrigated yields with august hail (15 %of local acres)  113 average .............

Dry land corn yields 70 bu/a...... average expectations.......  

% of fields infested with fumonicin 98% (the crop insurance maximum level of 2.1 ppm--- tests regionally as high as 500 ppm---our average 15 ppm)

% of loads of corn being rejected by the major cattle feeder in the area 60% in the texas panhandle.... less in ks but still too many....(feedlot will allow 60 ppm)  (seaboard  30 ppm)   ethanol less than that.

 

this week Bartlett began rejecting loads delivered from the harvest field, in fear that they will not have enough to blend it down.

 

This is the stuff that real marketing is about....... 

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