I would look at it this way, I would look at the 180 number as being your most likely outcome. 144 is possible but so is a higher number. So 865/180=4.80, how does that strke you? I am all irrigated, which I suppose changes your standard deviation, but even in 2008 we collected nothnig except on the flooded fields. I suppose that people that usually forward sell, wll forward sell those that don't will not, especially this year. I guess I wouldn't deviate too far from your general pattern, one thing is for sure, if you thought of an outcome, so have the insurance actuaries and then some.
