Crop Tours and USDA Forecasts
ag.com folks may be interested in two recent FDD articles on crop forecasting:
1. This article discusses reliability of crop tour estimates: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2014/08/learn-about-corn-and-soybe...
2. This one discusses trends in the accuracy of USDA corn yield estimates: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2014/08/usda-corn-yield-forecasts-...
Look forward to answering your questions.
University of Illinois
Re: Crop Tours and USDA Forecasts
Why does the second study ignore the March to August time period of forcasts.
Predictions made after harvest has begun should be accurate..