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Crop conditions. Got a question
So we are at 70% G to E
IMO no way but whatever.
question
apparently the 5 year average for this week is 75%
correct me if i am wrong
so we are 5% below
the 5 year nat avg corn yield is 150, if i take 2012 out which i shouldnt but i will, its 157
so 150 nat avg 5 year yield
and we are 5% under the 5 year avg crop ratings for this time of year
what does this mean?
first answer that comes to mind is, USDA IS FREAKING CLUELESS and these ratings mean NOTHING
combines tell the story
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Re: Crop conditions. Got a question
I think you've got it. They are clueless, and so are the traders. Patrick
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Re: Guess i'm trying to figure out
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Re: Crop conditions. Got a question
Come on MT, you know that is not how the numbers work. We are short 5% in the G/E most of which slides to fair not zero, so will yield maybe 75% of avg, not zero as you just did the math. Probably comes out to a 156/157 national yield because the G/E is almost all in the 200+ areas of the country.
With todays rain on the dry areas in the west, 160 national is surely possible. No heat. IL/OH/IN/KY will need a good rain next week to make that possible, but it keeps raining, so why would the market assume it is going to stop now. Look at the radar. I'm not bearish price in any way after this collapse, but at least do the math the right way to get a real number. :-)
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Re: Crop conditions. Got a question
Well said Time. I am not bearish either after the pounding the market has taken. I think we very well may take another ten to fifteen cents off corn but then we begin a very slow climb. Again, it all depends on weather the next six weeks.
The math Tigger has done is a very large part of the reason he consistently misses the size of the corn crop by 1 billion+ every year.
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Re: Crop conditions. Got a question
5 year national avg......
75% G/E = 150 bu/ac
2015.....
70% G/E = approx USDA Plug of 166 by/ac
These are not my numbers. These are printed numbers from the USDA. Not mine
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Re: Crop conditions. Got a question
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Re: Crop conditions. Got a question
Well, of that 70% G-E, it depends on how much is "excellent" and how much is just "good"? Also how much is the "very very very really really really excellent" that Illinois and Indiana touted last year, when I would`ve called northern Iowa a disapionting year, last year.
I guess most of us that do a 70mph crop tour assess a nice green, good stand, not visibly weedy, <2% yellow patches or drown outs or burnup corn field as "good to excellent". But every field has a story, one guy didn`t apply N and was depending on sidedressing, however went on vacay during that 1 week window to get that done with his rig, well that combined with wet weather it was too big but he did it anyway, he must`ve sidedressed the maximum+ #50 because that crappy, yellow hiphigh corn turned a dark dark green in just a few days and shot up. It looks "good to excellent", but it was starved during the plants` ear size determination growth, so I would say the jury is out on exactly how it will actually yield. Have to keep in mind that isn`t normal opperating for most "G-E" corn fields though.
I`m at a disadvantage in judging this crop because, I have only seen good to excellent corn in my limited travels, as far as I would be concerned it`s all good to excellent except pictures that I see on the internet. But the internet is the same place that tells me there are "beautiful single women 5 miles away that want to date you" too ..so
I`m just kidding, I know there`s a band down south from Kansas to Ohio that`s been terribly wet and I am sorry for you guys. Just divining the information that I read, I would guess the corn crop to be nationally 160 at this time.
There is a patch of poor corn in north Iowa, some hippie organic farmers have some late planted corn long way from tassel and on the other half of their farm is some 2014 corn that they still need to pick...they have done the same thing year after year and they keep going so who am I to judge.
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Re: Crop conditions. Got a question
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Re: Crop conditions. Got a question
And if you don't believe go pull the number and see
The 5 year nat avg for corn is 150. 2010,2011,2012,2013,2014. USDA numbers. Not mine. Right out of the reports
According to marketeye's comments yesterday, for this week, the 5 year nat avg for G/E is 75%. That number could be wrong I don't know. But I assume it's close
This weeks G/E is 70% and the USDA is using 166
My point is. If the 5 year nat avg is 150 with a 75% G/E. And a current G/E of 70% with a 166 target?
Makes no sense
Again. These are not my numbers. These are all printed on USDA letterhead
80@150=12B
80@157=12.56B