cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Crop conditions. Got a question

So we are at 70% G to E

 

IMO no way but whatever.

 

question

 

apparently the 5 year average for this week is 75%

 

correct me if i am wrong

 

so we are 5% below

 

the 5 year nat avg corn yield is 150, if i take 2012 out which i shouldnt but i will, its 157

 

so 150 nat avg 5 year yield

 

and we are 5% under the 5 year avg crop ratings for this time of year

 

what does this mean?

 

first answer that comes to mind is,  USDA IS FREAKING CLUELESS and these ratings mean NOTHING

 

combines tell the story

0 Kudos
16 Replies
Pat in CMO
Senior Contributor

Re: Crop conditions. Got a question

I think you've got it. They are clueless, and so are the traders.  Patrick

0 Kudos
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Guess i'm trying to figure out

what a redone "planting intentions" report bout aug 12 or 14th Truly MEANS ( If a DAM Thing ). hmmmmm....granted i tend to flunk english language more and more it seems over the past 40 years.
0 Kudos
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Crop conditions. Got a question

Come on MT, you know that is not how the numbers work. We are short 5% in the G/E most of which slides to fair not zero, so will yield maybe 75% of avg, not zero as you just did the math. Probably comes out to a 156/157 national yield because the G/E is almost all in the 200+ areas of the country.

 

With todays rain on the dry areas in the west, 160 national is surely possible. No heat.  IL/OH/IN/KY will need a good rain next week to make that possible, but it keeps raining, so why would the market assume it is going to stop now. Look at the radar. I'm not bearish price in any way after this collapse, but at least do the math the right way to get a real number. 🙂

 

 

0 Kudos
IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Re: Crop conditions. Got a question

Well said Time.  I am not bearish either after the pounding the market has taken.  I think we very well may take another ten to fifteen cents off corn but then we begin a very slow climb.  Again, it all depends on weather the next six weeks.

 

The math Tigger has done is a very large part of the reason he consistently misses the size of the corn crop by 1 billion+ every year.

0 Kudos
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Crop conditions. Got a question

I think you guys missed what I was laying down

5 year national avg......

75% G/E = 150 bu/ac

2015.....

70% G/E = approx USDA Plug of 166 by/ac

These are not my numbers. These are printed numbers from the USDA. Not mine
0 Kudos
ihtractortherap
Senior Contributor

Re: Crop conditions. Got a question

Family member worked for FSA. Crop ratings are a joke. Windshield assessment by someone in each county office is reported
0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Crop conditions. Got a question

Well, of that 70% G-E, it depends on how much is "excellent" and how much is just "good"? Also how much is the "very very very really really really excellent" that Illinois and Indiana touted last year, when I would`ve called northern Iowa a disapionting year, last year.

 

I guess most of us that do a 70mph crop tour assess a nice green, good stand, not visibly weedy, <2% yellow patches or drown outs or burnup corn field  as "good to excellent".   But every field has a story, one guy didn`t apply N and was depending on sidedressing, however went on vacay during that 1 week window to get that done with his rig, well that combined with wet weather it was too big but he did it anyway, he must`ve sidedressed the maximum+ #50 because that crappy, yellow hiphigh corn turned a dark dark green in just a few days and shot up.  It looks "good to excellent", but it was starved during the plants` ear size determination growth, so I would say the jury is out on exactly how it will actually yield.  Have to keep in mind that isn`t normal opperating for most "G-E" corn fields though.

 

I`m at a disadvantage in judging this crop because, I have only seen good to excellent corn in my limited travels, as far as I would be concerned it`s all good to excellent except pictures that I see on the internet.   But the internet is the same place that tells me there are "beautiful single women 5 miles away that want to date you" too ..so  Smiley Very Happy 

 

I`m just kidding, I know there`s a band down south from Kansas to Ohio that`s been terribly wet and I am sorry for you guys.   Just divining the information that I read, I would guess the corn crop to be nationally 160 at this time.

 

There is a patch of poor corn in north Iowa, some hippie organic farmers have some late planted corn long way from tassel and on the other half of their farm is some 2014 corn that they still need to pick...they have done the same thing year after year and they keep going so who am I to judge. 

0 Kudos
IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Re: Crop conditions. Got a question

Come on Justin get real. I know where you got your numbers and that is fine. Just so I understand you are you saying that you are taking 5% off the five year average of 150 for a crops size of 142.5? If you are going to use that logic since we are 5% lower on G/E versus a year ago we can just take 5% off last years yield of 171 for a 2015 yield of 162. I'm sure you would go for that wouldn't you? My method probably makes no more sense than yours but I'll bet I am closer at 162 than you are at 142.
0 Kudos
Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Crop conditions. Got a question

Ok Steve. Let me break this down

And if you don't believe go pull the number and see

The 5 year nat avg for corn is 150. 2010,2011,2012,2013,2014. USDA numbers. Not mine. Right out of the reports

According to marketeye's comments yesterday, for this week, the 5 year nat avg for G/E is 75%. That number could be wrong I don't know. But I assume it's close

This weeks G/E is 70% and the USDA is using 166

My point is. If the 5 year nat avg is 150 with a 75% G/E. And a current G/E of 70% with a 166 target?

Makes no sense

Again. These are not my numbers. These are all printed on USDA letterhead

80@150=12B
80@157=12.56B

0 Kudos