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Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,061
Registered: ‎05-20-2010

Crop conditions

Corn conditions up and bean conditions down....does that make any sense to anyone? How is it even possible? The big rain totals have been in the ARK bean belt, not NC IA.

 

I must say that it is quite apparent that IA does not need any rain to produce a average crop. Not sure why we ever cared what happens in IA...   :-)

 

Not that it ever matters, but our cool and damp forecast for mid-August has turned in to 3 - 87 degree days in a row after 19 days with no rain, so despite the crop moisture indexes, and drought monitors, the beans are under pretty good stress during pod fill.  (I'll just ignore how pathetic they looked as we entered august :-)   Yep, conditions are improved!

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,478
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Crop conditions

I'm not sure why we are even looking at these crop condition reports.  They apparently don't mean anything when they are not good.

This has been clearly a case of mixed signals for producers. It's hard to get a handle on production and prices in a normal year....let alone a year like this one.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 306
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Crop conditions

Last week when they upended the markets the report was the exact opposite corn ratings down soybeans ratings up. More to my point everyday. Doesn't matter gentlemen these crooked traders will collect regardless. It has become a lose, lose scenario. Weather, crop conditions, yields, acres supposedly planted are all variables they will use for any chance to make a buck for them in any year. Should all be locked up $$$$$$$ thieves.
Advisor
Posts: 1,027
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Crop conditions

It's pretty bad when you catch Ken complaining about the government. I agree totally btw. I can punch so many holes through the government reports lately it makes you wonder why they have them.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,225
Registered: ‎06-30-2010

Re: Crop conditions

[ Edited ]

Crop conditions "reports" are  basically observations and (likely) some conjecture by non-farmers.  How many of those "reporters" actually walk out into fields, make realistic/scientific counts, accurately stage crop growth stage/maturity?  It's most likely they are often just visual observations without even a roadtrip, just based on what the "reporter" has heard, or maybe he/she called a couple people.  Also, just as likely they are just visual (windshield) observations from an unscientific roadtrip.  If it's dry and crops are turning brown, that's bad.  If it rains and everything greens up, suddenly things look good.  Personally, I think 80% of the crop rating is based on what the grass looks like on the highway shoulders and median strip.  Perhaps they should publish the name of the local crop conditions "reporters" in the monthly FSA newsletters.  Perhaps weekly reporting is too frequent.

 

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php

 

All states participate in the survey. Each state maintains a list of reporters, largely extension agents and Farm Service Agency staff, who report progress and conditions of selected crops in their area for the current week. Nearly every county in every state has at least one reporter.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,599
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Crop conditions

Fsa personel participate.......... There is a clue.....

 

If you publish that name she might leave the office the day it gets filled out............ No ... it wouldn't  .......... that anti private ownership opinion is not going to change if there is a killing freeze tomorrow.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 947
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Crop conditions

Everyone wants the crop report for the nation to look like the one in their field.  Doesn't work that way.  

Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,051
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Crop conditions

Speaking for NCIA, the corn crop is "clean as cold water`ll get it" it`s variable small ears, but quantifiable, it`s made one way or another. The beans could be surprisingly good, we got 1" and another 1" on the way, just keep jack frost away.  I didn`t hedge anything and want both to go up, but if they have to screw us, I guess they have the most justification screwing us on the bean prices. 

 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 306
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Crop conditions

Not everyone in the nation Jim just us brave five. Problem for your argument is we're all saying the same thing.?. Post five supporters (of the report numbers)then we'll have the debate. No point in arguing about facts, we don't need a weather man to know which the wind blows.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 947
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: Crop conditions

I wouldn't dream of bringing facts into the discussion.  Smiley Happy