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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Crude

looks like May will go off the board at 40 year lows.

I don't know what demand will do as some economies begin to re-open, and neither does anybody else, even if they Just Know everything.

The 'rona makes the call, and nobody really knows about that, although I'll default to the opinions of people who know more than I do. Which is to say that we're only at the end of the beginning.

Economies will remain very soft, jet fuel won't recover for a long time etc. Although people will be driving more. 

But there's very little room for any further surplus as storage begins to get full.

 

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6 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Crude

whether drillers and their lenders (junk bonds, mostly) get bailed out, I doubt that Putin's gambit to take them out (hugely exacerbated by the 'rona) will succeed.

When the smoke clears, somebody will be buying the assets- or at least the best of them- at a discount and getting right back at it.

"On the bright side" the financial crisis and super low oil prices are really knocking back renewables- which were actually the real long term threat to the petro-dictatorships.

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Futures is PAPER

Market... Crude oil at a supposed $1?

Guess we all just have to make allowances for others that cannot. 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Futures is PAPER

Traded to -40.

Coulda made a lotta money if you’d gotten there with enough buckets.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Futures is PAPER

Think of the LDP payout if they can get corn to -3.00.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Futures is PAPER

The last few fellers holding long May were eaten by bears.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Futures is PAPER

You could infer that whatever small bit of inland storage is open, it is not for sale.

Coastal stuff not so bad as there is still floating storage.

Wildly back of the envelope, if the world previously used 100 mbd and demand is off by 25 at present.

Opec + cutting 10.

You still need a rebound of 15 mbd to balance. A tall order any time soon.

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