The weather forecasts are getting better and better. Every one of us of any age knows that. The reason forecasts are getting better is we have much more information about the weather. Satellites. Weather radar. Super computers with very good (I didn't say perfect) models. Many, many more reporting locations. The interesting thing is our demands on weather forecasters has increased as quickly as their ability to respond. Every time they improve their ability, we raise the bar to just beyond what they can presently do.
And yet, what can happen that can mess up the weather? A sun spot. A volcano eruption. Huge forest fires. These and more can throw a black swan into the mix that is not possible to predict, even if we admit that sometimes things like this will happen. Just listen to a good forecaster discuss the difference between the European and American models on hurricane forecasting.
Some people are throwing more resources at anticipating markets. As you say, there are a huge number of variables that are hard to anticipate and hard to fit into the picture. A revolt in a palm oil country might mean nothing one year, but in another year with an El Nino which affects the fish catch, a drought that reduces soybean production, a famine that increases bean meal demand all of a sudden this little putch tips the scales. You are right, this is very hard to factor in, but we know that some peole with a lot of money, access to incredible brainpower and super computers are trying to model it.
I agree 100% that it is at present impossible and foolhardy to predict markets. On the other hand, it is pretty easy and defensible to project where prices will be if current trends continue. An 8th grader can do the math to do that. But no one will accept that. Ag media people are the worst. They turn every projection into a prediciton, with predictably (ha ha) calamitous results.
I wish the markets were as reliable as the weather reports.
