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Veteran Advisor

Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

well what can I say ??

poor ole mike tried to make us feel better, leading off with a story how wheat was up 4 cents overnight......only to have wheat down

almost 9 cents now....

he then tried in the corn market, reporting that the nations moonshine stills were going as fast as they could, with even more

production, and thusly using more corn.......wrong......that didn't work either.

 

rather a lively little discussion starting again on crop insurance and set aside.....but here is one to ponder on.....wheat is usually

a "fringe area crop", moisture and fertilizer requirements much less than corn....so, if crop insurance is what is causing

all this surplus, and the surplus is coming from the fringe areas, then what do we do with wheat ?

 

who ever dares start in that we again have had a huge crop and we have too much......I have a rude awaking for you...it wasn't 

no piles of wheat around these parts like before....and not due to gain bin building, where was none in this area.

the big elevators are not filled to the gills like we were told last year.

 

 

we have those telling us it's a "world problem".......I will counter with this......first, how much will it cost to ship the "cheap wheat" to

the united states ?  second, what was the grade ?  a couple of years ago, the report was that FRANCE was the drag on the wheat

market  (yes FRANCE.....compare the size with the united states)......well the story then came out that much of it had a problem

and it was feed grade......you do not make products for human consumption from feed grade wheat.....yet the Chicago crowd thought

so.

so what does that say of our market ?  if that truth were to be held....then the CME price would be for feed wheat.....so what we

have here in most instances, is FOOD grade.....so it therefore be a positive basis, rather than $1 lower ?

 

you fellows in the north.......I really don't know what to say.....most of yours is higher protein.....(i'm talking durum wheat) what pasta is

made of, then there is the spring wheat........they are just beating the $%@! out of you folks.

 

 

folks, something is wrong......something is broken at the CME

 

here is an interesting idea...you know they tell us that a free market is good.......even the CME at large tells us the free market is

what is needed.......

 

just as long as that free market is the CME

 

consider if another market place would spring up, to "share" the free market, and the profits.......just what do you think the reaction  by

the CME  would be

 

"whats good for the goose is good for the gander"

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8 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

elcheapo,

Shipping wheat into the US is not the question.  The question is if the world needs wheat and there is a lot around, the portion of the US market that might have been exported is not wanted or needed so it has to find a home at home - at a lower price.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

So, maybe we should all plant 10-20% of our acres to winter wheat (as a cover crop), remember to cancel the wheat policy before the sales closing date if not wanting to insure the wheat, report it to FSA as planted wheat this fall, buy summer/fall '18 futures after the huge acreage increase makes it thru the reporting mechanisms, kill the wheat before it heads in the spring (report to FSA that it was destroyed), and sell the futures contracts after the market realizes the acres aren't there, and move on.

 

Is that all legal?  It would sure screw with the markets.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

so..........according to jim, the amount of wheat america produces makes no difference...........its about the world.

 

might look in your book to see the percent of the world production is via the united states.........

 

yep......the united states production does not count.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

elcheapo - are you being blind on purpose or do you have some objective?  Facts and data are no longer good currency on this board.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

Facts and data are no longer good currency on this board ??????????

 

huh ?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

If it's facts you want, the USDA should only report the ACTUAL acres and yields after harvest........not some wild guess before there is a seed in the ground.   Smiley Wink

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Honored Advisor

Re: Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

Yes that is where the the "doubt" about supply world wide begins.......... if usda is willing to be fictitious to the point of demanding respect for their work about future production that is yet to be planted...... Doubt is planted in the reporting process and will have a record crop  Smiley Happy

 

Not to mention the accountability of "world" data gathering....   Lets compare it to a witness to tomorrows murder giving us a detailed testimony today..... I doubt that would stand up in court but of course if it were a prognostication ......it, like usda, would be as highly respected as a groundhog in Pennsylvania.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Dang ! the top of the grain bin popped off....again !!!

news out today in wheat...............

 

exports announced, we sold/exported more wheat than what the trade guess........

tender for milling wheat to egypt

china offered wheat sale, but few bought....very poor quality

and we are on the 4th wave count down on wheat.

 

oh........i know......that all equals 10 cents down...or maybe limit down ?

 

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