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Senior Advisor

Dangling the carrot.

Well, it appears that the Chinese are dangling the soybean carrot in front of trump again.  Makes you almost want to get hopeful about the price of soybeans this fall but how many times have we been here before.

  For some who can see a possible bean crop coming, I would think they would be thinking about pricing some.  In my case, with pods just starting to fill, I'm going to hold off awhile longer and hope the price stays up. 

  I do think it's uncanny how my soybean broker raised his basis up just a few days before the Chinese announcement and tried to get some beans bought the week before last.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Dangling the carrot.

"soybean broker"?    that`s a fishy term coming from an alleged farmer that raises beans.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Dangling the carrot.

"Yesterday [Sept 12], a private Chinese firm purchased ten boatloads, weighing 600 tonnes, of American soybeans. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that China purchased over 10,000 tonnes of pork from the US during the first week of the month. Increasing purchases of US agriculture was one of the main trade stipulations made earlier in the year. These recent purchases and tariff delays signal easing tensions ahead of the face to face meeting set for early October."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-september-13-2019/

Carrots seem to be dangling everywhere.   Smiley Wink

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Senior Advisor

Re:It seems like 600 tonnes is little light, maybe 600,000 metric tons more likely.

Generally, for a bulk freighter load crossing the Pacific on the order of 70,000 tons, so 8 load would get you to 560, 000 ton or close to 600,000 ton.

  As of last week, Sept 5, the Chinese had a 1.07 million tons of soybeans on the books.  Sept 13, FAS reported an additional 204,000 tons of soybean sales for China.

  Hopefully, come Monday we'll see this 600,000 sale reported.

  That would make 1.8 million on the books.

  But keep in mind, two years ago, we had almost 8 million on the books by Sept 1.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Re:It seems like 600 tonnes is little light, maybe 600,000 metric tons more likely.

1.8 million?    That's still a lot of acres when you figure this year's yields.

How many?

I'll let someone else do the math.

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Veteran Advisor

....And in other news

China's pork inflation -> Up

China's chicken inflation -> Up

China's lamb inflation -> Up

China's beef inflation -> Up

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3027123/xi-jinpings-biggest-headache-isnt-hong-kong-i...

Today's Jeopardy Daily Double

We'll take "Chinese Government's Fears" for $400, Alex

Answer:  What is 1.3 billion hungry-angry people.

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Dangling the carrot.

The last issue of Agri News newspaper has the Sanders ag platform. To sum it up the platform wants to go back pre Reagan platform. Supply management. To me it sounds peculiar that the Chinese and the President suddenly talk turkey on trade.  By the way until the election. To think an old geezer hippy has Chinese attention so fast. Not say I am for him, but that socialist in Brazil is cleaning your wallet out real go od

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Senior Advisor

Re: Dangling the carrot.

There was always a window here where it looked likely that China would buy some US beans.

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