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Honored Advisor

Re: David Kruse on the latest bean runup.

The rallies that many expected have been a nice relief event. This rally is probably very much like the rally last summer, based upon magic dust and illusion and mostly fear/greed.

 

I don't know and don't follow any of the "advisors" and "gurus" that you guys love to chastise, but I will take issue with the desire to have unlimited spec money "Come into the Market".  You do realize

that some day it will have to "Go out of the market" right. If this plays out like it has every time it has been tried in the last 6000 years, there will some extreme pain for everyone. Most living today

can't even imagine how it works out. Never seen it and no one reads history anymore. Too busy worrying about who gets to use which bathroom.

 

Open Int in beans was over 6 Bil bushels, that is more than one global crop year's production.

 

I love harvesting the speculators and their insane immediate urges but just recognize that there will be a downside someday, and it might be alot worse than many can imagine.

 

SucFarming still cannot get the pages to format correctly....pathetic.

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Honored Advisor

Re: David Kruse on the latest bean runup.

Time, isn`t it basically "money" that moves markets, the weather, exports chart moves are all tapestry?  Elevators fiddled with basis, but you know...not that much really, before the run up they were 60 under now 70 under on S6X so a dime, so there is a "reason" behind the rally or they would`ve added a buck to that 70¢ basis. 

 

If we don`t get money flow into the market, then yes the bearish advisors are correct that a person couldn`t expect more than $8.50 new crop beans.  Before the funds came in NC beans were $8.25...even $7.99 with the prospects of going in the $7`s.   If this spec money leaves won`t we be right back where we started in the low $8`s?   And hopefully with $1 more than anyone`s wildest dreams those that needed cookies took some.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: David Kruse on the latest bean runup.

and therein likes the problem

 

"getting the folks to take some cookies along the way"

 

Ray J

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Honored Advisor

Re: David Kruse on the latest bean runup.

There are a few that are overweight.........They don't need any cookies.    These folks especially don't need to be told to take some cookies...........Plus, there are some that would prefer steak & lobster.    Not everyone is in the same restaurant.         Smiley Wink

Senior Contributor

Re: David Kruse on the latest bean runup.

So tell me when will the last cookie plate be passed??
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Honored Advisor

Re: David Kruse on the latest bean runup.

Smiley Very Happy  I don`t know about the "last cookie", but here`s ol` Jerry Clower telling you about grabbing the last piece of chicken on the platter.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8wLI4gHvts

Honored Advisor

Re: David Kruse on the latest bean runup.

When I say money flowing out, I was referring to the recent tsunami in AND the 125,000 contract long "swap dealers" which are 100% specs that have been long since 2006 (not commercials as CFTC reports them), AND the 250,000 contracts of spread trades. Basically 500,000 contracts that will have to leave some day, likely during a financial panic.

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Honored Advisor

Re: David Kruse on the latest bean runup.

Time, I thought those spec funds always long commodities rode the tsunami until about 2011.  They ran gold up to $1900 and such in fear of inflation, when China decided to quit building "ghost towns" and when fracking got rolling in the Baakens, that party was over and took $7 corn with it.  Suposedly they lost alot of money on that long commodity bets.   But that liquidity added to farm commodities layed alot of tile, put up machine sheds and put alot of paint in the farm yards.   That was real money that farmers put to use, welders were employed...the old lady`s kitchen got remodeled.  The seed companies didn`t yet get the memo that that party is over though  Smiley Happy 

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