Dead cat bounce counted started

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Roy Smith has started the clock on the dead cat bounce.  Are you ready to sell beans yet, or will you wait a while?  Do you have a river market that dies with river close, or is this a non-factor?  Here, we get quite a price drop after the first week December river close.

[nwobcw]

  Our prices hold up with bean processing and ethol. plants within easy trucking distance.

[sw363535]

Board isn't far from 13 for three years out.  hummmmmmmmm.  On my cash flows it's hard to call that a bad sale.

Certainly the word opportunity ought to pop up somewhere.

Is it the high, I hope not.  I love to look back at my early "too soon" sales.   Means market went up.

When I have to look back at the "great" early sales................they were never enough.

[idalivered]

No rivers close, but soy processors, in nia, have narrowed basis 10 cents in the last week. Look for more to come,  'cause farmers are fairly flush with old crop sales, good new crop sales, and deferred income after jan. 1. Many will not sell a thing before next feb. at thee earliest.

[rayjenkins]

Lots of space, smallish crop, low moisture crop that is easy to store, and fast harvest pace...

all adds up to narrowing basis next 50-75 days and lots of opportunities to make/plan cash sales to take advantage of the developing situation.----without a sharp spike in board, corn basis levels on November 15 will make it difficult to justify holding cash corn in eastern 2/3 of corn belt....

if this comes about as I expect, will be prudent to manage risk via futures/paper rather than hanging on to cash....