Dec 1 Corn Stocks???

[c-x-1]

if 1.2 B new was consumed before Sep1, how much more was consumed after that??

Could we see a # below 8 B??? esp if USDA had to cover their a$$ for 2011 balance sheet...or will they try to count early harvest twice?..in order to show a bigger #. 

[roarintiger1]

Actually, they have already decided on what the final carryover numbers will be and will adjust the numbers backwards to reach those levels.

[farmer46]

Your question is really a multi-million dollar one.  If the harvested acres remain unchanged and the early Aug use of 12 corn is not accounted correctly, we have a problem.  It will mean many millions will be transferred to the holders of corn in Summer.  Maybe some farmers are financially secure to hang on.  I believe many are unable to hold on until then.  Thence, the transfer of millions will take place.   I know,  I should play the futures.  History has not been kind to me with futures.  I buy at the wrong time and sell at a worse time. LOL

[c-x-1]

It sort of hit me between the eyes a few weeks ago...was remembering some chatter of corn harvested in Aug going straight to feed...as in flying beneath the balance sheet radar..........i don't know logistics with storing - hauling, etc, but common sense says the most economical use of the early corn would mean as little storage and or transport cost as possible.

Mainly, how on earth would USDA be able to be so organized as to properly account separately old & new, as you say farmer46, during what was a feverish month (Aug) - no pun intented.

thx for feedback.

[rayjenkins]

In reality, that early harvested corn can move a long ways if it will help "bust the inverse" in the cash market in a more timely fashion...OR if it is just needed to keep livestock fed or food ingredient processors running until local harvest becomes available

We rarely buy truck corn more than 60 miles south of us.....but in 1996 in late August we were getting truck corn from 300-350 miles SW of the plant....

I agree that the USDA has a late season stocks "problem".....if you remember, that was going to get "Fixed" with a big 2012 crop as the June WASDE projected feed/residual at 5.450 Byn, which was almost 900 million bushels larger than previous year....well, that all disappeared as the corn crop shrank...

So far the market is functioning.....first order of business was keeping US corn value high enough to discourage exports....then, the next step will be about rationing corn usage between the various domestic user groups--the end game will be about getting some folks to stop using corn for a period of time and/or selling their corn ownership back into the market where they can make more money than using the corn themselves in that 30-60-90 day window..

The most critical piece of data this year will likely not be in the Jan report....it will be in the late March report when the March 1 corn stocks are published....that report will tell us usage between Dec 1 and March 1---and give us a clue to how much corn we have to last from March 1 to mid September.....in 1996, the corn market had an explosive reaction to that information.

Ray J

[Red Steele]

Just curious, Ray, did those trucks bringing corn in during 1996 have a backhaul ? 700 miles of freight on a semi of corn would seem like a huge deal if the load had to stand on its own.

I think the producer that can tolerate the gambling , and those holding corn and beans right now must be in that camp, will get rewarded by waiting until the normal April, May, June timespan to finish up sales of the shortened 2012 crop. Holding until late July would seem like trying to hit a grand slam against the best strike out pitcher in the game.

[rayjenkins]

No backhauls involved....although that was a different "era" of fuel prices back then which made truck transport more viable

by early August of 1996, the realization in the heart of the midwest was that the corn supply was just about exhausted.....I've told this story before, but it still illustrates the fact "there will always be a carryout".....after peaking at $5.50 in the cash markets in mid July, corn price floated along and started to drift lower as some of that southern cornbelt corn started to work north....had a guy who was still holding 40,000 bushels of old crop corn on Sept 10......I called him up the last day you could get $4 for cash corn and told him "I know you don't think it's over---but it's over, because new crop corn is coming from the south (at that time was down to 150-200 miles away and getting closer every few days)......he said something about welding the bin doors shut and waiting until the the summer of '97 when he knew we would run out of corn again....

oh, and btw---the next year beans went to $9.....and they didn't sell beans in '97, either.....

I've got quite a few guys who missed $8 cash selliing opportunities a second time when the March board ran into the mid 7.60's not long ago....but had good interest in our quick ship $7.50+ bid at +50H late last week.....go figure....

Ray J

[Hobbyfarmer]

Just takes some of us longer to sort out the "needs" from the "greeds".

[Faust100F]

I personally trust the USDA reports and know that Larry, Moe, and Curly would never mislead anyone.  I am certain there are absolutely no politics or vested interests present when these reports are compiled.  Ray has to be wrong, because we are looking at a 2013 record corn cropof 167 bu. average.  And Brazil has a "Record" bean crop, so I guess we all should have taken their advice and sold off the combine.  I am sure the weekly USDA reports are truthful and honest, I mean . . . American Government Employees are the best of the best or our government would not have them preparing important reports.  

I also support the unilateral contract cancellations we provide China, I mean we really do need them as a trade partner, because we really do need them to buy our feed grains or our poor farmers would go broke, along with the seed companies, bankers, chemical companies, and Cargill.  So I know letting them ignore the "rule of law" everyone else plays by is in our best interests. John

[Shaggy98]

Set the rules, enforce them and if they don't like it give them the # to Grain-Mart so they can write their own rules.  We need to take back our backbone.