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Contributor

Dec' Corn and thoughts on sales.

We've seen a rally of just over 1.20 here in a week and a half.  When looking at the charts, we are putting a similar trend in as we saw in the Jul'07 rally to near $7.  Most of the people I have talked to are approximately half sold at something much lower than what we are now seeing (high 3's, low 4's).  What are your feelings on selling now (basis hovering around -$.20, spot price near $5.60 for most midwesterners.  This duplicity of trend lines to 2007 suggests that maybe now is a time to sell, but many market reports still seem pretty bullish.  I expect for prices to remain in a constant oscillation between 5 and 6.20 until at least march when new crop is beginning to be considered.

 

The question is hard to sort out of that...but does anyone have any thoughts?  Sell now, near the 2 year highs or hold on and hope you don't end up "give-up selling"?

 

It seems like it would be worth considering forward contracting some for jan'11

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3 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Dec' Corn and thoughts on sales.

Definitely planning on doing some corn 11 tomorrow.

Interesting to see how quiet the perma bears like Bob U. are.

Probably to busy covering margin calls.

Definitely, augt to take a cookie off the plate here.

Do what you want with yours, this isn't market advice, just common sense.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Dec' Corn and thoughts on sales.

I sold and shipped about 10% of my beans.  I've sold about the same amount of corn for late Nov delivery.  I'm nibbling along and will continue to be not shy at these prices.  I'll probably keep some gambling beans but most will be gone by river close (1st week of Dec at the Mississippi).  Corn, I don't know.  Some tax planning will enter the play.  With little carry, why hold it?  Of course, weather could make grain quite valuable next year.

Talked to a grain buyer today who told me his estimate was that over half of the beans are sold, some since early spring, for delivery by river close.  Most at prices in the high 8's and 9's.  He said maybe less corn was forward sold, but some of it was in the high 3s and 4s.  His guess is there will be a fair amount of corn held in farm bins till next summer.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Dec' Corn and thoughts on sales.

I think a person should do some research and understand what some of the proposed year end inventories for BOTH corn and beans imply. Some of the numbers seem to be in very troublesome territory on the low side. Compare them to 2008. Like it or not corn has proved before it can go higher.

 

I see one call that corn and beans might look for up to 8-10 million more acres next year. Those are big numbers.

 

There are any number of strategies for selling into this one, but this might be the time to keep an ace in the hole. That's not the same as the whole hand. Another strategy might be to slow the original plan down, or raise goals, but NOT junk the plan itself.

 

Another interesting year.

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