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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Demand is dead.......o wait, clicked on the candyland link instead of reality........

I don't think people realize what 92 maybe 93 million corn acres looks like...........most of the core corn states are already flat out running heavy on corn.........they dealt with high rent last year.........I would be willing to bet corn acre might actually stay flat or go down in some of the I states because of areas hit with 50 bushel penalties for COC........ And fringe areas boosted corn acres last year as well......the only way I see a huge jump in corn acres is if corn gets back to 7 before planters roll or we have a perfect spring everywhere........two big If's...... Then let me ask you what soya acres looks like.........72ish.......now all of a sudden soya could come in short especially if SA prod is overstated.......see my point of this being bigger than the 2008 breadbox....
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4wd
Senior Contributor

Re: Demand is dead.......o wait, clicked on the candyland link instead of reality........

Just in the past week, the board has put 40 cents on the price of corn per bushel, when everyone was saying a crash was imminent.  No reason then cannot put another $1.00 on if they really want to discover what price us tight azzezd holders want to open the bin doors and let them have the centers.

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4wd
Senior Contributor

Re: Demand is dead.......o wait, clicked on the candyland link instead of reality........

As was pointed out a year ago (maybe by MT, I can't remember), we no longer are producing corn for a glutted feed grain market. Ethol has chewed up the surplus, and we now produce just in time. Any little weather, transportation, political, fungal, or other disruption in product delivery will immediately result in price super spikes. IT IS A NEW GAME, don't be caught short

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Re: Demand is dead.......o wait, clicked on the candyland link instead of reality........

4wd as of right now ethanol plants are in negative margins, we aren't talking the end of the blenders credit yet.  Do you think all those ethanol plants are going to keep chewing through corn at a loss.

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: Demand is dead.......o wait, clicked on the candyland link instead of reality........

I don't see much in the way of increased corn acres around here, either.  Most of the BTOs went heavy on corn last year, and paid for it.  Many, if not most tried to plant 'one last field' of corn, before switching to beans.  That last field or two of corn, lost yield big-time, up to 40 BPA, with a late harvest of high-moisture corn.  On the other hand, the beans they planted the very next day, had yields as good or better than they have ever seen, with only half the irrigation expense that corn had, and a harvest in good weather.  Granted, each year is different, and this summer was a better 'bean' year than 'corn' year in general, but the late planted corn got hot & dry weather during pollenation, and low yields, and you can bet that is in the back of everyone's minds if the planting this spring has any delays at all.

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Shake and Bake

What does Shake and Bake mean nowadays?

We all know about the food product.  When I was in the Army in '69, the dearth of senior NCOs meant that we didn't have enough enlisted leadership at the squad and platoon level.  An E4 would be taken to a special academy and in 90 days he came out as an E5 buck sergeant.  In comparison with the several years it might take to go from E4 to E5 in the peacetime army, these rapid promotions often resulted in immature men doing their best to be leaders when they were actually over their head.  Just like the Shake and Bake food product tried to persuade you that this chicken was really as good as what ;your mother made, the Army really didn't expect these Shake and Bake NCOs to be the kind of seasoned, mature leader the old peacetime non-coms were.  (Some did very well - I'm not knocking them - just telling you where I first heard Shake and Bake used).

Now, I hear it on the football field and have no idea what it is supposed to be describing. 

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Re: Shake and Bake

Whenever you shake and bake something it gets hot. This markets been warming up.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Shake and Bake

MT:  I'll give you we only get 93 mil corn acres (85.5 harvested) x 175 yield is a 15 bil crop. (Yields don't stay under trend forever.)

 

4wd..."Don't be caught short"...For now you are likely right, but alot of people are short beans from $14 and that has been a very pleasant experience.

 

Allows me to speak for "Pritch the Grinch", "sotring pricund is PUre specUlaton, PREPARE to hrvest spce lenght."

 

Hope you all have a blessed Christmas with family. Take a moment to listen to "Mary Did You Know" early tomorrow morning. Great way to start the day.

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NDf
Senior Contributor

Re: Shake and Bake

Timing the more the corn acres planted the less lkely to hit trend. COC,  marginal acres and acres from the non traditional corn areas will bring down the National average. I'm not saying it can't happen, but perfect weather is needed.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Demand is dead.......o wait, clicked on the candyland link instead of reality........

Time....apparently you have paid no attetion to my trend vs average charts.......175 nat avg is along ways away with 93M acres......maybe at 83M we do it.......think production capacity for corn, soya, wheat, and cotton......not simple yields and acres....
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