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Honored Advisor

Diary of a poor marketer.

This is a semi-fictional account of mainly the emotions of a guy attempting to market the last of his "Las Vegas bushels".

 

November 14, friday:  Dear Diary- wow $3.57 cash bid...best since july, the worm is turning....oh-oh stay calm it closed down, but that`s alright, that`s alright.   5:05 pm talk to me Kruse, why did it close down???  Aw, shut up I don`t give a crap about your Brazil farms.   8:20 Elaine Kub is on with Mike Pearson...she says corn is going to 4 bucks!  I am sooo smart!  Smiley Happy

 

 

Saturday 11/15  9:10 am  Tyne Morgan has 2 bears on Utterback and Mark Gold and they both look crabby  that`s good, that`s good  Smiley Happy   Mark Gold says "the corn market lost it`s marbles"  Ha Ha Ha

 

Sunday Nov 16  8pm I wonder what the over nights are doing ...what down???  That`s alright that`s alright, I`ve seen it a hundred times it It`ll turn around by morning or tomorrow.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Nov 17 morning Watched Al Pell didn`t learn anything...Market-Eye and Shellady say down a few pennies.  And it closed down

 

Nov 18 tuesday ...export troubles...yeah yeah yeah big crop I know, bird flu in China...close down 5. 4`

 

 

Nov 19 Wednesday okay off 2 overnight cash is probably below $3.40 off what I coulda had friday. i can`t take anymore of this i`m an emotional wreck...I`m gonna pull the trigger ...on selling, on selling, I`m not that big of emotional wreck Smiley Happy 

 

Before this this goes down even further.   There you have it within the next week the biggest corn rally of the year will take place...you all are welcome   Smiley Happy

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Advisor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Don't know that you really need my help but as a general response to your topic:

 

There is a phenomenon that I once have fallen prey to in the past but learned to avoid.

 

That 's the notion that if I take 5 newsletters it will surely make me a better marketer (substitute any other source of opinion freely) than if I take one.

 

What actually happens is that you simply scan for the one that reinforces your emotional tendency of the moment.

 

Even the worst of those five newsletters is probably a dog that will have his day and over time you're probably better off sticking with him than bouncing around for what you want to hear.

 

So I'd say as interested as one may be, limit your primary sources of opinion. If you use more than one then do it because they are substantively different- i.e., technical vs. fundamental etc.

 

Then it is just Ag Econ 301, I think. Seasonality, incremental disciplines, techs and funnies.

 

Actually this site very much qualifies as a place where you don't want to go if you're looking for opinion- especially following whoever has a hot hand at the moment or getting up in the trash talk of defending an opinion.

 

  This place is valuable to a small degree to just get some side info as to how things are going, broad sentiment etc.

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Thinking back I think I enrolled here about 2001 with a sincere interest in helping other farmers and, I'm sure a desire to have my opinion heard.

 

The handle was for the purpose of creating some cred that I'd been through a fair bit and wanted to share experience. Primary message at that time was that the LDP system was a WMD that was set to blow farmers up and we ought to be looking at strategy to avoid that.

 

It took until 2003 for it to happen. In tht year a banker friend confirmed that it was a very common thing for a guy to have sold 40 bpa beans, or more, at $6 or less so he could get double dip the LDP. When he actually grew 35 he had to buy back 5 which cost him a bit on top of the sub $200 gross he got. In a lot of cases the worst performance ever for some of those operations.

 

As it turns out, lending standards had become much looser by then and except for a few of the most vulnerable the lenders just rolled it over and moved on.

 

so in that regard not as big of a deal as I'd thought. A decade before it would have meant the death penalty for a lot more.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Yeah Nox, Smiley Very Happy   Since these emotions are fresh in my mind, I thought I`d sort of put them down in a story that some could perhaps relate to, during a marketing doldrum.   What`s also lurking in my mind is the "storage beast" that`s around the corner, at a time when every penny is precious in this corn market, you sure don`t want to also compound matters by paying warehouse storage as well.

 

With beans, I pulled the trigger, happy to not be selling with a "8" as the front digit....they promptly rallied a buck after I sold...on news already in the market, just hadn`t caught traction at the time I sold  Smiley Sad

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Contributor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Looks like my diary.

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Contributor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Good post.  These marketing forums paralyze me.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Hey TNalfalfa, for sake of posterity i`ll continue the emotions of the morning. 

 

Dear diary, well the gurus say "down 2-4" ...okay I can live with that..if it`s down 2 I guess I`ll make the call

 

9:30am what the crap down 6 and holding???    10:30 Alexanderia Lively is explaining things ...brain and ears don`t work when she`s on  Smiley Tongue

 

11:00 down 8  !!!  the screen gets flipped off with both fingers.   11:35 Sue Martin doesn`t even have any good news for me.   heck I`m gonna sort hogs.  

 

1:14pm..down 9  ...and I`m spent  Tomorrow I`m pulling the plug regardless of the price...i`m done!

 

 

There you go everybody friday will be the start of the giant bull market...China will buy or something but thurday afternoon even it will start going up.

 

Smiley Happy

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Hey BA, you must be talking about me?

 

Except I don't watch the shows or worry...

 

I hear the same crap every year, sun is never gonna shine again... 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Diary of a poor marketer.

Sounds like my frequent experience of 20-20 hindsight and "woulda coulda should" marketing.  On the serious side, it's why I more and more often call in a bid and then quit thinking about it.  I'll admit to having been surprised by a call "you sold 950 bushels at $.X.XX when I'd managed to forget about the bid.  There is a danger of selling corn one doesn't have.  Smiley Happy

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