Dire warning from Mark Gold on M2M

[BA Deere]

The link is below, but Mark thinks corn could drop +50 cents and beans over a buck if China trade isn`t resolved...much worse if come June/July a big crop looks imminent added a reported 1 billion bean carryover and everyone and their brother sees a 70, 80 bushel crop coming...Uff-dah!

http://www.iptv.org/mtom/story/33091/market-analysis-mark-gold

Let`s just say, I bought good seed and that`s about it with beans, no bells & whistles like fungicide and ILevo and micro nutrients, snake oil ect ect ect.  It`s just going to be a grandpa`s recipe for growing beans with the exception of $40/bag seed and let the chips fall where they may.  If a meteor wipes out the "surplus" and beans go to $18...fine and dandy I`ll hopefully get 40/bpa and live to farm another year, if not I`m not throwing the kitchen sink at yields what might be $5 beans come fall.  RA crop ins is a must.

[roarintiger1]

I'm just wondering how many times Mark Gold has already had his clients sell their 2019 crops?   

[BA Deere]

Hey Roarin`, isn`t that what they used to say about Bigshots, they need to "sell their crop more than once to make a profit"?    If they`re that smart, get a sandbox and play with Ertl toys in their pajamas in between trades.   

[JimMeade]

I saw that.  It was in response to a leading "worst case" question.  I guess each of us has to make up his/her own mind.  His recommended marketing was to sell in the Mar-May time-frame regardless of the scare part of the interview.

[BA Deere]

Yes, Mark recommends going back to "seasonal selling", I think one of SoyRoy`s "always" rules is always sell beans on like the 8th of May.   That doesn`t "always" get you the best price, but could keep you in business. Mark Gold would have you perhaps spending a king`s ransom in calls to get you in the "Top Third" price, springboarding off the SoyRoy price.  

I`ve heard that droughts for Ioway start in Georgia, well Mike Hoffman`s drought monitor has about the only drought out west in the 4 corners, while Georgia/Alabama is wet.  So long as that`s the case, the weather probably won`t bail us out.

[k-289]

I'm  considering starting a  New  Firm   ( actually old )   called  something on  the  order  of ,  Mil - Fill -More   or  No  Nutten ,  then  at  least  no  one  will  try  and  pleasure- iZE  my  trademark  name -  -  -

trade's  might  be  free  -  and  return  on  inve$tment  ''  O '''  -  although  margin  calls  would  be  minimal , also  -   -    -     

[JimMeade]

I believe Elwynn Taylor said there was one drought that started in WI, but the others started in the Carolinas.  I suppose Georgia is not quibbling.

Of course, that is in the famous "rear view mirror".  With climate change, who knows where the next drought will start?

[farmerbob44]

Poor tech closes in grains today.

Curious that the stock market was trying to be higher on "rumors of a China trade deal" but grains weren't buying. Looked like stocks weren't real convinced at the close, either.

FWIW, I'm thinking a "double 8"- $8 for new crop beans and $8 for the unpriced old ones would probably kick us into a higher level of generalized farm distress.

Or I guess call for a larger Stormy pay off. It will be an election year.

[wrightcattle]

Sells?   Heck there's a fear monger in every crowd now times.LoL

[wrightcattle]

Soooo I'm somewhat more optimistic than the 8 and 8 club.

beans are not a viable crop at $8....there's quite a few crops you can sub in and make real Money.