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02-16-2019 07:06 AM - edited 02-16-2019 07:19 AM
The link is below, but Mark thinks corn could drop +50 cents and beans over a buck if China trade isn`t resolved...much worse if come June/July a big crop looks imminent added a reported 1 billion bean carryover and everyone and their brother sees a 70, 80 bushel crop coming...Uff-dah!
Let`s just say, I bought good seed and that`s about it with beans, no bells & whistles like fungicide and ILevo and micro nutrients, snake oil ect ect ect. It`s just going to be a grandpa`s recipe for growing beans with the exception of $40/bag seed and let the chips fall where they may. If a meteor wipes out the "surplus" and beans go to $18...fine and dandy I`ll hopefully get 40/bpa and live to farm another year, if not I`m not throwing the kitchen sink at yields what might be $5 beans come fall. RA crop ins is a must.
02-16-2019 01:38 PM
Hey Roarin`, isn`t that what they used to say about Bigshots, they need to "sell their crop more than once to make a profit"? If they`re that smart, get a sandbox and play with Ertl toys in their pajamas in between trades.
02-17-2019 10:54 PM
I saw that. It was in response to a leading "worst case" question. I guess each of us has to make up his/her own mind. His recommended marketing was to sell in the Mar-May time-frame regardless of the scare part of the interview.
02-18-2019 06:37 AM
Yes, Mark recommends going back to "seasonal selling", I think one of SoyRoy`s "always" rules is always sell beans on like the 8th of May. That doesn`t "always" get you the best price, but could keep you in business. Mark Gold would have you perhaps spending a king`s ransom in calls to get you in the "Top Third" price, springboarding off the SoyRoy price.
I`ve heard that droughts for Ioway start in Georgia, well Mike Hoffman`s drought monitor has about the only drought out west in the 4 corners, while Georgia/Alabama is wet. So long as that`s the case, the weather probably won`t bail us out.
02-18-2019 08:01 AM
I'm considering starting a New Firm ( actually old ) called something on the order of , Mil - Fill -More or No Nutten , then at least no one will try and pleasure- iZE my trademark name - - -
trade's might be free - and return on inve$tment '' O ''' - although margin calls would be minimal , also - - -
02-19-2019 02:25 PM
I believe Elwynn Taylor said there was one drought that started in WI, but the others started in the Carolinas. I suppose Georgia is not quibbling.
Of course, that is in the famous "rear view mirror". With climate change, who knows where the next drought will start?
02-19-2019 03:42 PM
Poor tech closes in grains today.
Curious that the stock market was trying to be higher on "rumors of a China trade deal" but grains weren't buying. Looked like stocks weren't real convinced at the close, either.
FWIW, I'm thinking a "double 8"- $8 for new crop beans and $8 for the unpriced old ones would probably kick us into a higher level of generalized farm distress.
Or I guess call for a larger Stormy pay off. It will be an election year.