Disappointing IN soy yield

[hardnox]

Third hand but a decent source.

Came in at 67, the guy thought for sure he had 70+.

2.4 bean where 3.8 or so is the upper end. I've tended to think that later beans will be the better given the timing of rains although don't know how it played on that field.

The corn question is open and I'm very interested how it plays out. But I think the bean number could end up bigger than the biggest number I've seen anybody who's deemed official whisper. Assuming we get them harvested and we usually do.

Since I have a hot hand by saying 175 on corn back in July (I don't have a high degree of confidence in that holding up) I'll go up to 52 in beans.

For youngsters, we did have some outliers of that magnitude back over the years when broad conditions came together with the constant advance of cultural practices and genetics (I put cultural practices first just to PO the seed people but I think it arguably true).

Might as well give the farmers their due.

I suppose the fear now is that the guys at USDA who everybody here thinks are just pornsurfing while they collect their big government paychecks will publish my number again,

[SouTx]

I tend to agree with your yield assessments. Suppose it will take a bit, but expect supply to overwhelm in soys.  Can't see corn rallying in the face of that.  Even if yield slightly disappoints. 

Regards. 

[hardnox]

Well, at least we can be wrong together.

[timetippingpt]

I could see corn yield disappointing all the way down to 172. Since they will reduce demand with it, carryout will be the same. Hopefully, we end up getting about a 30 cent trading range in corn so we can merchandise at the top end of it and sell puts at the bottom.

[hardnox]

I wouldn't argue with that, although I think they'll be slower to reduce demand projections than yields. Which might produce a picture that can be more optimistically spun for a while.

But given the amount of feed wheat around the world, if BRA and ARG come close to what they're trying to put out in corn, exports alone could fall that much.

And while FSR is typically high in big crop years, they seem pretty optimistic on domestic usage too.

[hardnox]

BTW, I think corn is tricky this year.

There are no perfect analog years and this one is a lot different than the last two.

What I keep hearing on corn yields is stuff like "disappointng. I thought it would make 225 at least, only made 205."

There are going to be fewer +225 fields nationally this year and there are also going to be fewer sub 175s.

Although it seems that the number of +225s was what drove a surprisingly good national crop the last two years even with a lot of subtrend stuff on opposing ends in those years.

I'm not very confident of anything, other than people who were arguing subtrend even after the widespread and timely rains arrived were probably all wet.

Did hear a 241 out of W IA today.

IA and IL probably have to rise above the lofty projections to hold a national 175.

[SouTx]

The rest of the world appears to still be gearing up to increase production.  Residual of the $6-7-8 corn days. They will have shortfalls  occasionally (SA this spring).  The event is harder to recognize and know the effect as it is half a world away.  The price reactions will probably be short lived, since everyone is still increasing production.  Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the Chinese 16 corn crop filling in around Asia this fall. 

[hardnox]

More combines running, hearing one disappointing 60, a few in the 60s and one 70+. Whether it turns out to be the case or not, most believe that their later beans will be better.

[hardnox]

Also, a 3 bpa reduction in corn yield coupled with a 1M increase in harvested acres amounts to less than 100 mb.

Don't get too fixated on the headline number.

Assuming a reasonable harvest season, harvested bean acres probably go up a bit too.

And I don't really want to think about the scenario where we have .5 acres more beans and a 52 bpa yield.

But I guess I ought to consider it.

[hardnox]

Hot, wet, particularly in August and particularly following a dry June, is a pretty good recipe for beans.

This ain't rocket science.

I'm open to the conversation about corn but generally think a lot of the mau-mauing is a function  of even the analyst and expert class missing the deal with an extreme shift from weather forecasts and market action at a key juncture..

The single best attribute, by far, for a marketer or trader is the capacity to change your opinion when circumstances change.

And as I've said, the more you set yourself up as a guru the harder it is. Pleasing yourself is hard enough without having to defend your position by making up excuses.

It isn't about you except to the degree you make it.

As someone once said, you're just a stick floating down the mighty Mississippi. The current is going to go where it is going to go.